Trick or Retreat ROC/RJCC/RYC

Junior Women's Foil

Sunday, August 18, 2024 at 12:00 PM

NJ Convention & Exposition Center - Edison, NJ, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	JANG Kimberley	-	-	-	-	3%	26%	71%
2	MCSHERRY Ava	-	1%	8%	31%	46%	14%
3	EYER Hailey M.	-	-	-	-	1%	14%	86%
3	MI Aileen	-	-	1%	7%	37%	55%
5	YANG Iris	-	-	-	5%	34%	60%
6	HAO Danica	-	1%	15%	50%	30%	4%
7	ROZPEDOWSKI Claire	-	1%	6%	24%	42%	26%
8	WANG Amabel	-	1%	6%	23%	41%	27%	2%
9	WANG Carol	-	-	3%	15%	38%	38%	6%
10	MCFARLANE Asha	1%	11%	28%	35%	20%	4%	-
11	PEVZNER Nicole	-	-	4%	30%	52%	14%
12	BABIAC Julia	-	2%	14%	40%	35%	8%
13	LAO Sophia	6%	31%	42%	18%	3%	-
14	DIMATULAC Elise Ann	-	5%	22%	37%	28%	7%	-
15	SHENG Katherine	1%	12%	37%	38%	12%	1%
16	FENG Audrey	-	4%	18%	36%	31%	10%	-
17	SHA Yi Ling	-	2%	11%	31%	40%	16%
18	BRAVO ORTEGA Astrid	1%	11%	31%	36%	18%	3%	-
19	CHOW Annabelle	-	-	2%	14%	42%	42%
20	MARKOVSKY Nina	-	1%	12%	38%	39%	11%
21	ORBE-AUSTIN Nia	18%	39%	31%	11%	2%	-
22	SONG Jenna	2%	17%	37%	31%	11%	1%	-
23	BADLANI Diya	12%	44%	34%	9%	1%	-
24	KAPOOR Saanvi	3%	17%	36%	31%	11%	1%
25	JIANG Chloe	3%	29%	51%	16%	1%	-
26	GREENLEAF Ella	22%	40%	27%	9%	1%	-	-
27	ELNAGGAR lily	2%	15%	34%	33%	14%	2%	-
28	BERGEL Daphne	3%	19%	36%	30%	10%	1%
29	LEVY Avery	1%	14%	39%	35%	10%	1%
30	REZA Fukaina	46%	41%	11%	1%	-	-
31	LI Savannah	4%	23%	38%	27%	8%	1%	-
32	SHERLOCK Gabriella	12%	41%	36%	10%	1%	-
33	NICUDEMUS Bryella	56%	36%	7%	1%	-	-
34	LIU Kiki	14%	37%	33%	13%	2%	-
35	SNYDERS Evelyn	11%	51%	33%	5%	-	-
36	HASTINGS Sarah	8%	41%	37%	12%	2%	-	-
37	GOLDBERG Talia	69%	28%	3%	-	-	-
38	VAROQUA Tala	52%	37%	10%	1%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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