Cascade Clash SYC

Y-14 Women's Saber

Friday, August 23, 2024 at 8:00 AM

Northwest Fencing Center - Tigard, OR, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	MACKAY Katherine	-	-	5%	20%	36%	30%	8%
2	JIANG Evelyn	-	-	-	2%	14%	40%	43%
3	GUGALA Hanna	-	-	-	-	7%	36%	57%
3	KANG Ellie	-	-	-	3%	17%	42%	37%
5	HUGHES-WILLIAMS Adelayde	-	-	-	4%	20%	42%	32%
6	WONG Natalie	-	1%	6%	22%	37%	27%	7%
7	YUEN Nicole	-	-	1%	10%	30%	40%	19%
8	WANG Jiayi	-	-	1%	10%	35%	43%	11%
9	YANG Caroline	-	6%	26%	39%	24%	5%
10	LONG Jessie	-	1%	5%	19%	37%	31%	7%
11	YU Stella	-	1%	8%	30%	42%	18%	2%
12	YU Skylar	1%	6%	24%	38%	24%	6%	-
13	WANG Tina	-	1%	9%	26%	37%	23%	4%
14	TONG Laurie	-	1%	7%	26%	42%	25%
15	HSIEH Lucia	-	3%	19%	41%	30%	7%	-
16	HWANG Charlotte	-	5%	21%	36%	27%	9%	1%
17	LAUREYNS Ainsley	-	4%	18%	35%	31%	12%	1%
18	LEMMEN Jasmijn	1%	13%	33%	34%	16%	3%	-
19	ZHAI AMY	-	-	2%	12%	33%	38%	15%
20	CHENG Anna	1%	9%	31%	38%	19%	3%
21	LONG Chloe	-	4%	18%	37%	32%	9%
22	BORTAI Eliza	-	6%	26%	37%	23%	6%	1%
23	DOLEV Rony	-	2%	12%	32%	35%	17%	3%
24	CHANG Annette	-	4%	19%	36%	29%	10%	1%
25	KAZA Ananya	10%	43%	36%	10%	1%	-	-
26	MORINAGA Mirai	2%	14%	32%	32%	15%	3%	-
27	TABANCAY Ava	20%	40%	29%	10%	2%	-	-
28	ERPELDING Emily	13%	38%	34%	13%	2%	-
29	BRIMMER Bella	6%	34%	38%	17%	4%	-	-
30	DUFF Caitlin	3%	23%	44%	25%	5%	-	-
31	CHENG Zijuan "Grace"	-	5%	21%	36%	27%	9%	1%
32	MIKSOVSKY Katherine	11%	33%	35%	17%	4%	-	-
33	RUSMEVICHIENTONG Lyla	-	3%	20%	38%	29%	9%	1%
34	KAZA Aditi	59%	34%	7%	1%	-	-	-
35	YANG Renee	49%	42%	9%	1%	-	-	-
36	SONG Phoebe	54%	37%	8%	1%	-	-	-
37	BARRETT Maya	1%	6%	21%	36%	28%	8%	1%
38	LI Meredith	45%	42%	12%	1%	-	-
39	BHAVSAR Vanmayi	12%	45%	32%	9%	1%	-	-
40	SULLIVAN Clara	16%	44%	31%	7%	1%	-	-
41	LI Bernadette	60%	34%	6%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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