Cascade Clash SYC

Y-12 Men's Saber

Friday, August 23, 2024 at 11:30 AM

Northwest Fencing Center - Tigard, OR, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	KANG Jeremy	-	-	1%	7%	29%	47%	15%
2	HWANG Hagan	-	-	-	1%	9%	36%	54%
3	TANG Morgan	-	-	-	6%	33%	61%
3	WONG Hawken	-	-	1%	9%	29%	42%	20%
5	GRIGORIEV Roman	-	-	3%	17%	40%	34%	7%
6	LI Ryan	-	2%	12%	32%	36%	15%	2%
7	VO Blake	-	-	4%	19%	38%	32%	7%
8	GREENSTEIN Viktor	-	-	-	2%	14%	41%	43%
9	HRISTOV Nickolas	-	-	2%	11%	35%	41%	11%
10	HAO Johnny	-	-	2%	14%	47%	37%
11	GUVEN Derin	8%	33%	40%	17%	2%	-
12	DUFF Michael	4%	21%	37%	28%	8%	1%	-
13	YUEN Caleb	-	-	1%	14%	50%	35%
14	CHEN Aaron	-	2%	11%	30%	38%	17%	2%
15	WANG David	-	4%	17%	34%	31%	12%	1%
16	CAO Chong	11%	34%	35%	16%	4%	-	-
17	JI Derek	1%	20%	45%	29%	4%	-
18	LVOVSKIY Roman	1%	7%	25%	37%	24%	6%	-
19	KIM Eric	-	2%	13%	32%	35%	16%	2%
20	FU BRANDEN	-	1%	9%	27%	38%	22%	3%
21	LEE Kyle Sung Ju	1%	10%	32%	38%	17%	1%
22	ZHEN Felix	23%	46%	26%	5%	-	-
23	TAN Daniel	7%	31%	37%	19%	5%	1%	-
24	TABANCAY Cole	1%	13%	34%	33%	15%	3%	-
25	LUO Gavin	2%	19%	40%	30%	8%	-
26	LIU Paul	16%	36%	32%	13%	3%	-	-
27	WANG Henrik	-	4%	21%	37%	28%	9%	1%
28	CHUNG Evan	-	5%	23%	38%	26%	7%	1%
29	IRVINE Cooper	13%	42%	32%	10%	2%	-	-
30	WANG James	1%	11%	35%	39%	12%	1%
31	NORMAN Wesley	60%	33%	6%	-	-	-
32	CHOI Brayden Yui Chit	12%	37%	36%	13%	2%	-	-
33	HSIEH Maxwell	23%	40%	27%	8%	1%	-	-
34	NGUYEN Asher	-	2%	13%	35%	37%	12%	1%
35	ERPELDING Ryan	< 1%	6%	26%	40%	23%	4%
36	HUGHES-WILLIAMS Atticus A	20%	43%	29%	7%	-	-
37	NELSON Logan	45%	41%	13%	2%	-	-	-
38	LI Linus	53%	38%	9%	1%	-	-	-
39	HAFEZ oliver	1%	16%	41%	31%	10%	1%	-
40	KARNEY Oliver	1%	9%	31%	39%	17%	3%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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