Daytona Duel ROC (D1A, DV2,VET)/RJCC/RYC/RPC

Div II Men's Foil

Sunday, August 25, 2024 at 12:00 PM

The Ocean Center Convention Center - None

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	ORLOV Dmitriy	-	-	5%	24%	44%	27%
2	KOE Beckett	-	2%	15%	41%	34%	7%
3	MARISI Gabriel	-	-	6%	36%	43%	15%
3	VOLKOV Oleksandr	-	-	1%	11%	41%	47%
5	RIVERA IVAN	3%	17%	35%	31%	12%	2%
6	BARRERA Marcelo	15%	39%	32%	12%	2%	-
7	ALNEAMAH Anwar	-	-	3%	23%	47%	27%
8	LEON Nicolas	1%	9%	36%	38%	15%	2%
9	ZAIDI Adil	-	4%	26%	44%	22%	3%
10	DONDERIS AJ	-	1%	8%	31%	43%	18%
11	SWEENEY Murphy	-	4%	22%	41%	27%	6%
12	DELL George H.	-	-	6%	31%	50%	13%
13	CANTERO Darwin	-	-	4%	28%	47%	21%
14	SIMMES Jackson	-	1%	10%	38%	40%	11%
15	OZTEK Muzaffer T.	-	2%	14%	35%	37%	13%
16	SANDS Cooper	-	1%	9%	28%	40%	22%
17	TUMANYAN Rahffi	1%	10%	31%	38%	17%	2%
18	TOSCANO Sebastian	16%	45%	33%	5%	-	-
19	CREWS Aiden	34%	46%	18%	3%	-	-
20	FULMER Jacob	6%	25%	37%	24%	7%	1%
21	BENSCH Vincent	10%	37%	40%	12%	1%	-
22	MORRIS Owen	25%	44%	25%	5%	-	-
23	LANGSTON Skylar	-	2%	12%	32%	38%	16%
24	LECLAIR Noah	39%	45%	15%	1%	-	-
25	CANTERO Erick	33%	47%	17%	2%	-	-
26	BURLACE Brenden	11%	42%	38%	8%	1%	-
27	SANKER Lincoln	4%	27%	41%	23%	5%	-
28	CARRERO Quentin	37%	49%	12%	1%	-	-
28	FERRONE Nate	20%	43%	29%	7%	1%	-
30	PAGAN Marco	20%	48%	27%	5%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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