River City Regional Rumble - RYC/RJCC and Y8

Junior Men's Foil

Saturday, September 21, 2024 at 8:00 AM

Greater Richmond Convention Center - Richmond, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	TANG Albert	-	-	-	3%	17%	42%	38%
2	TIKHAEV Alexander	-	-	-	4%	19%	43%	34%
3	TANG August L.	-	-	-	1%	8%	35%	56%
3	HUANG Eythan	-	-	5%	20%	38%	30%	7%
5	SONG Austin	-	-	-	4%	21%	43%	32%
6	YAP Nathan	-	-	4%	18%	36%	32%	10%
7	ORLOV Dmitriy	-	-	2%	13%	33%	39%	13%
8	MAO Lucas	-	1%	6%	23%	38%	26%	5%
9	SHENG Dalton	-	-	1%	10%	30%	41%	18%
10	PARRISH Evan	-	-	1%	6%	23%	42%	29%
11	MARISI Gabriel	-	4%	17%	34%	31%	12%	1%
12	SALAZAR Tomas D.	1%	11%	35%	36%	14%	2%	-
13	HE Kyle	-	1%	6%	25%	41%	24%	4%
14	GRIEB Oliver	1%	12%	32%	34%	17%	4%	-
15	HUA Aaron	-	5%	22%	37%	26%	8%	1%
16	METZ Mason	3%	17%	34%	30%	13%	3%	-
17	LU Nathan	-	-	4%	22%	40%	28%	6%
18	DOELL Ethan	-	-	3%	16%	38%	34%	9%
19	SMOLICH Marat	-	1%	8%	27%	38%	21%	4%
20	JIANG Bowang	-	-	3%	16%	36%	34%	10%
21	SHIN Noah	2%	17%	37%	31%	11%	2%	-
22	PRUT Anton	4%	26%	39%	23%	7%	1%	-
23	ZAIDI Adil	-	4%	22%	40%	27%	7%	-
24	XU Dinghui Ryan	2%	14%	35%	33%	14%	2%	-
25	HOLLIS Sean	5%	28%	39%	22%	6%	1%	-
26	ROTHMAN Matthew	4%	21%	36%	27%	9%	1%	-
27	YU William	-	1%	10%	34%	37%	16%	2%
28	MOE Annan	-	3%	17%	34%	31%	13%	2%
29	HARWOOD Gray	2%	18%	44%	27%	7%	1%	-
30	VOLKOV Oleksandr	-	-	4%	20%	40%	30%	5%
31	SHANKS Aidan T.	-	4%	19%	35%	30%	11%	1%
32	PHILLIPS Oliver	23%	48%	24%	5%	-	-	-
33	GADIYARAM Madhav	20%	44%	28%	8%	1%	-	-
34	ZOU Michael	10%	33%	36%	17%	4%	-	-
35	PRICE Owen	1%	8%	28%	37%	21%	5%	-
36	HAN Nathan	21%	50%	24%	4%	-	-	-
37	CHANG Xavier	44%	44%	11%	1%	-	-	-
37	CHANG Zane	62%	32%	6%	1%	-	-	-
39	BOWLES Kevin	57%	35%	8%	1%	-	-	-
39	LOVELACE Vander	34%	44%	18%	3%	-	-	-
41	TOSCANO Sebastian	49%	42%	9%	1%	-	-	-
42	BUTLER Jeffrey	5%	22%	34%	26%	10%	2%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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