Neil Lazar Div1/Div2/Veteran ROC

Div II Women's Foil

Saturday, September 28, 2024 at 8:15 AM

NYA Sports and Fitness Center - Newtown, CT, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	FENG Audrey	-	-	1%	11%	39%	49%
2	SHENG Katherine	-	-	5%	27%	44%	23%
3	VAUGHAN Norah	-	-	1%	7%	37%	56%
3	LIU Kiki	-	5%	22%	40%	27%	5%
5	LI Savannah	-	4%	20%	39%	30%	7%
6	LAO Sophia	1%	6%	24%	39%	26%	5%
7	FIELD Elizabeth	-	-	2%	16%	53%	29%
8	GREENLEAF Ella	1%	8%	28%	39%	21%	3%
9	BERGEL Daphne	-	-	11%	37%	39%	13%
10	OLSEN Jen	-	-	-	7%	43%	49%
11	LEVY Avery	-	-	8%	32%	42%	17%
11	MEYER Claudia	-	-	5%	26%	48%	21%
13	POWLEDGE Cora	-	4%	20%	40%	29%	7%
14	HUANG Sophie	-	1%	6%	26%	43%	23%
15	HWANG Chanel	1%	11%	34%	39%	14%	1%
16	LAZAR Carolina	6%	26%	38%	24%	6%	-
17	PUOPOLO Mia	-	1%	7%	31%	47%	14%
18	TOROPOVA Arina	3%	21%	45%	27%	4%	-
19	LIU Caydence	2%	13%	34%	36%	14%	1%
20	SHANG Arianna	11%	34%	37%	16%	3%	-
21	BERTOLINI Mia	1%	11%	38%	41%	9%	1%
22	PRINZ-STRATEMAN Matilda	15%	47%	31%	7%	-	-
23	MCDERMOTT Catherine	5%	28%	42%	21%	4%	-
24	NICUDEMUS Bryella	11%	33%	35%	16%	3%	-
25	LEE Allison	11%	34%	36%	16%	3%	-
26	LIU Yinuo	-	5%	39%	39%	14%	2%
27	POLING Katherine	9%	33%	38%	17%	3%	-
28	KIEFER Priti	29%	59%	11%	1%	-	-
29	LAVINE Samantha	47%	40%	11%	1%	-	-
30	GOLDBERG Talia	26%	43%	24%	6%	1%	-
31	SULLIVAN Red	4%	18%	34%	30%	12%	2%
32	VAN DE VELDE Cecile	8%	35%	39%	16%	2%	-
33	CHRISTENSEN Nora	3%	19%	42%	30%	6%	-
34	BELISTRI Isabella	61%	37%	2%	-	-	-
34	QI Annabelle	31%	44%	21%	4%	-	-
36	HUNG Samara	51%	39%	9%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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