Motor City RYC/RJCC and Y8 Foil

Y-14 Men's Foil

Saturday, September 28, 2024 at 8:00 AM

Elite Sportsplex - Waterford, MI, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	SENIC Lucas	-	-	-	-	3%	43%	53%
2	ZHENG Marcus	-	-	-	1%	8%	37%	54%
3	FANG Haoyu	-	-	-	1%	11%	39%	49%
3	HUANG Holmes (Shengheng)	-	-	1%	10%	43%	46%
5	OZAWA Taishi	-	-	3%	28%	50%	19%
5	LU Jingyi	-	1%	6%	25%	43%	25%
7	FRASER Rhys	-	3%	14%	32%	36%	15%	-
8	WANG Daniel	-	1%	6%	25%	39%	25%	5%
9	GE Felix Fei	-	-	5%	21%	43%	32%
10	ZMUDA Aiden	-	1%	10%	32%	38%	17%	2%
11	CAO Justin	-	3%	15%	35%	35%	11%
12	LIU Yinhong	-	-	1%	9%	42%	49%
13	HICKEY Connor	-	1%	9%	29%	42%	20%
14	QU Zhida (richard)	-	-	3%	20%	52%	24%
15	KAGAN Noah	2%	18%	36%	30%	11%	2%	-
16	FAN Ze Lin	-	-	3%	15%	36%	37%	9%
17	DIFRANK Tae	7%	29%	41%	21%	3%	-
18	COOK Grant	-	5%	21%	37%	28%	8%	1%
19	SYMMANK Callen	-	4%	20%	37%	30%	8%
20	EDWARDS Connor	-	6%	25%	38%	25%	6%
21	WU Rayson siyu	1%	7%	27%	38%	22%	5%
22	ALVA Anmol	11%	33%	35%	17%	4%	-
23	WANG Caleb	-	1%	10%	30%	40%	20%
24	LI Andy	6%	24%	36%	25%	8%	1%	-
25	VARRE Rishi	-	4%	16%	33%	33%	13%	-
26	GOGOI Kavi	4%	22%	40%	28%	5%	-
27	WANG Freyr	56%	37%	7%	-	-	-
28	KNIBBE Nathan	2%	14%	33%	35%	15%	2%
29	DEBORD Beckett	8%	29%	37%	21%	5%	-
30	ZHAO Jason	11%	33%	35%	16%	3%	-
31	CHEN Varick	10%	35%	38%	15%	2%	-
32	PAN Howard Haoran	2%	14%	33%	35%	15%	2%
33	KOLACKI Gabriel	7%	34%	38%	17%	4%	-
34	NG Kai	-	1%	6%	25%	40%	25%	4%
35	LIN Wilson	8%	29%	37%	21%	5%	-	-
36	ZHENG Lerui	12%	34%	35%	16%	3%	-
36	MYERS Julian	-	1%	13%	46%	33%	6%
38	PAYNE Lynas	6%	35%	46%	12%	1%	-
39	XUE Lucas	6%	34%	40%	16%	3%	-	-
40	TURNER Jackson	1%	11%	31%	36%	18%	4%	-
41	DEPP Edward	10%	31%	36%	18%	4%	-
42	PU Yikun	2%	12%	29%	32%	18%	5%	1%
43	CAO Jeremy	2%	15%	35%	33%	14%	2%	-
44	FEEHAN Conor	5%	31%	42%	19%	3%	-	-
45	MORALES Tycho	13%	48%	33%	5%	-	-
46	TAGORE Ayansh	56%	35%	8%	1%	-	-
47	DIFRANK Avery	17%	39%	31%	11%	2%	-
48	WILLIAMS Thomas	28%	44%	23%	5%	-	-
49	GREULICH Nikolas	6%	26%	37%	23%	7%	1%	-
50	DENG Albert	57%	34%	8%	1%	-	-	-
51	LUND Jonah	60%	34%	6%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.