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Premier Challenge ROC DIV1A/DIV2

Div II Men's Saber

Sunday, February 24, 2019 at 3:00 PM

Parsippany, NJ - Parsippany, NJ, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	BASALYGA Jeffrey	-	-	3%	16%	42%	39%
2	MORREALE John	-	-	2%	11%	34%	40%	13%
3	MICHELL Bailey	-	-	2%	13%	40%	45%
3	HUAYTA James W.	-	5%	21%	36%	27%	10%	1%
5	TRAVAGLIONE Conor D.	-	-	-	1%	12%	41%	45%
6	TAKEMARU Leo	-	-	3%	15%	41%	41%
7	LIU Kelly	-	-	7%	33%	43%	16%	1%
8	GANTA Vijay	1%	16%	39%	33%	11%	1%
9	WARD Fraser	-	-	4%	23%	48%	24%
10	LASORSA Matthew	-	1%	6%	22%	36%	27%	7%
11	MOSZCZYNSKI Adam	-	-	4%	22%	44%	29%
12	YAO Jonathan	-	-	1%	6%	23%	42%	28%
13	MOSKOWITZ Mason C.	-	2%	10%	29%	40%	20%
16	ZHOU Miles	3%	32%	41%	20%	4%	-
17	PEDERSEN Leif	-	3%	19%	40%	31%	7%
18	SILBERZWEIG Jordan H.	-	-	-	-	2%	22%	76%
19	TSODIKOV Matthew G.	-	-	2%	16%	43%	36%	3%
20	KAHN Justin M.	1%	6%	25%	40%	23%	4%
21	LUO ZiRui	-	3%	18%	38%	32%	9%
22	HENNICKE Michael G.	-	2%	21%	41%	29%	7%
23	WUN William	-	1%	7%	25%	41%	23%	3%
24	LIN William	-	3%	14%	35%	37%	11%
25	PATTON Colin T.	5%	25%	40%	24%	6%	-
26	SHAKER Maged	1%	12%	33%	34%	16%	4%	-
27	SPRANG Nicholas D.	2%	14%	34%	34%	14%	2%
28	HALL Justyn	4%	22%	39%	27%	7%	1%
29	CHAN Alexander S.	-	4%	21%	40%	28%	6%
29	TANG Albert	5%	23%	37%	26%	7%	1%
31	CHAN Daniel	-	6%	31%	45%	17%	2%
32	TIERNO Thomas J.	23%	42%	27%	8%	1%	-
33	ROSEN Ben	17%	42%	30%	9%	1%	-
34	QIN Alexander	2%	15%	36%	33%	12%	2%	-
35	PARK Tai H.	-	5%	25%	38%	25%	6%	-
36	MARTINEZ Justin	16%	38%	33%	12%	2%	-
37	CONTRERAS Sebastian	2%	13%	32%	35%	16%	2%
38	XU Eric	8%	30%	37%	20%	5%	1%	-
39	DEWEY Charles J.	4%	21%	38%	28%	8%	1%	-
40	YUAN Kevin	-	2%	12%	30%	35%	17%	3%
41	DEFORD Kevin W.	46%	42%	11%	1%	-	-	-
42	RUDNET Noah	6%	33%	42%	16%	2%	-
43	GEORGE Daniel	6%	32%	41%	17%	3%	-	-
45	HEREFORD Ramses D.	19%	41%	30%	9%	1%	-
47	NEVILLE James	33%	42%	20%	4%	-	-	-
49	KEIRSTEAD Robert	6%	29%	42%	21%	2%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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