Challenge by the Bay RYC/RCC/Y8

Y-12 Men's Foil

Monday, October 14, 2024 at 8:00 AM

Power Sports Academy - Martinez, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	YANG Tate	-	-	-	3%	15%	40%	43%
2	GANAPATHI Eshan	-	-	-	2%	14%	41%	43%
3	RAU Shogun	-	-	4%	19%	43%	34%
3	ZHANG Jason	-	-	2%	18%	48%	31%
5	YANG Steve	-	-	2%	12%	40%	41%	5%
6	LEE Abin	-	-	-	1%	10%	44%	45%
7	DING Sam	-	-	5%	22%	39%	28%	6%
8	WU Gengze (Daniel)	-	-	1%	6%	25%	43%	26%
9	ALVAREZ Francisco Janusz	1%	9%	31%	40%	17%	2%
10	XU Ethan	-	-	-	3%	21%	50%	25%
11	MAO Runxian	-	1%	5%	20%	39%	28%	7%
12	EVANS Desmond	-	-	2%	17%	47%	33%
13	ALCAZAREN Cian	2%	14%	32%	33%	15%	3%	-
14	LIU Aiden	-	2%	12%	35%	38%	11%	1%
15	LI Aaron	-	2%	11%	29%	36%	19%	3%
16	GARCIA Carter	-	-	-	5%	21%	43%	31%
17	SHENOY sean	-	4%	19%	35%	30%	10%	1%
18	HO Cameron	4%	21%	36%	27%	10%	2%	-
19	LI Lief	3%	23%	44%	25%	5%	-
20	TAN benjamin	-	1%	5%	23%	40%	26%	5%
21	MANANSALA Caleb	-	2%	15%	36%	33%	12%	1%
22	KAJITA Grayson	-	6%	22%	37%	26%	8%	1%
23	CHEN Ryker	-	-	2%	12%	34%	38%	14%
24	SHAO Tysen	2%	14%	37%	34%	12%	1%	-
25	LEBURU Abhiram	-	1%	6%	23%	38%	26%	6%
26	HE Gary	2%	12%	31%	35%	17%	3%
27	LI Yunze	-	7%	30%	43%	17%	2%
28	LEE Joshua	-	3%	15%	32%	32%	15%	2%
29	OZCAN Archer	7%	26%	36%	23%	7%	1%	-
30	GU Evan	5%	25%	40%	24%	6%	1%	-
31	SHENOY Neil	16%	38%	32%	12%	2%	-
32	BACH-Y-RITA MC	10%	32%	37%	17%	3%	-	-
33	SINGH Reyaansh	12%	34%	35%	16%	3%	-
34	HSU Liam	28%	44%	23%	5%	1%	-	-
35	YAN Aaron	16%	40%	32%	10%	1%	-	-
36	LIN Dylan	5%	24%	39%	24%	7%	1%	-
37	CHEUNG Henry	10%	42%	37%	10%	1%	-
38	SPICER-YOUAKIM Benjamin	1%	10%	33%	40%	15%	2%	-
39	LUO Derren	26%	45%	23%	5%	-	-	-
40	SCHOR William	25%	45%	24%	5%	-	-	-
41	LIN Stewart	20%	41%	29%	9%	1%	-	-
42	DONG YIKUN	25%	45%	25%	5%	-	-	-
43	NGUYEN Nolan	34%	42%	19%	4%	-	-	-
43	LE Oliver	26%	46%	23%	5%	-	-	-
45	VASANTH Arjun	60%	34%	6%	-	-	-
46	CHANDLER Trevor	1%	22%	40%	27%	9%	1%	-
47	THAO Zenji	1%	11%	36%	37%	13%	1%

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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