The Austin Challenge SYC and RCC

Y-12 Women's Foil

Saturday, December 21, 2019 at 12:30 PM

Round Rock, TX - Round Rock, TX, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	GEBALA Gabrielle Grace A.	-	-	-	-	1%	16%	82%
2	TAN Kaitlyn N.	-	-	-	-	4%	27%	69%
3	SENIC Adeline	-	-	-	4%	26%	69%
3	CHEW Alexis T.	-	1%	10%	32%	40%	16%
5	NAIR Supriya	-	2%	12%	31%	38%	17%	1%
6	LIU Jaelyn A.	-	1%	6%	25%	43%	25%
7	CUI Amy	-	-	-	6%	35%	58%
8	COOPER Piper W.	-	5%	22%	39%	27%	7%	-
9	SHA Yi Ling	-	4%	18%	35%	32%	11%
10	ELNAGGAR lily	-	1%	5%	22%	40%	29%	4%
11	TUCKER ALARCON Frida	-	2%	11%	29%	38%	19%	1%
12	WILLIS Fletcher L.	-	1%	8%	31%	47%	14%
13	CHEN Chloe I.	1%	8%	32%	39%	18%	3%
14	HOBSON Ava	6%	24%	36%	25%	8%	1%
15	MANIKTALA Prisha	-	1%	8%	29%	40%	20%	2%
16	CHOI Kailyn	10%	32%	36%	18%	4%	-	-
17	SINGH Ashni	3%	19%	39%	31%	7%	< 1%
18	NISSINOFF Alexandra	2%	14%	33%	35%	15%	1%
19	OLSHANSKY Eliora S.	12%	33%	34%	17%	4%	-
20	YURKOVA Mariia	1%	7%	24%	37%	25%	6%	-
21	YAN Noelle	9%	32%	37%	18%	4%	-	-
22	CHANG Elizabeth	-	2%	11%	30%	38%	19%
23	POPOKH Aleksandra	5%	21%	37%	28%	9%	1%
24	SOLDATOVA Maria	-	7%	27%	40%	22%	4%
25	CROMWELL Keira	3%	18%	35%	32%	11%	1%
26	KIM Rachel	7%	26%	36%	23%	7%	1%
27	LI Irina	4%	21%	40%	28%	7%	-
28	KOZLOWSKI Maya M.	7%	26%	37%	24%	6%	-
29	SHORI Samantha	3%	18%	34%	30%	13%	2%
30	LUH Mia P.	17%	48%	28%	6%	1%	-
31	CHU Camille	12%	38%	36%	13%	2%	-
32	HSU Kaylin	18%	39%	31%	11%	2%	-
33	CHAGARES Isabella	26%	43%	24%	6%	1%	-	-
34	LAI Sophia	9%	30%	36%	19%	5%	-	-
35	DODDABALLAPUR Saanvi	33%	43%	20%	4%	-	-
36	TEPMAN Alexandra D.	11%	35%	36%	14%	2%	-	-
37	BLAKE Saylen	48%	40%	11%	1%	-	-
38	CHEN Stephanie	17%	38%	31%	12%	2%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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