AFM Super Regional SYC/RJCC/ROC Div1A/Vet

Veteran Men's Épée

Friday, October 25, 2024 at 12:30 PM

Santa Clara Convention Center - Santa Clara, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	HANSEN Eric J.	-	-	-	-	-	9%	90%
2	SCHINDLER Sergey M.	-	-	-	4%	21%	44%	30%
3	ALEXANDER Charles	-	-	5%	24%	42%	26%	1%
3	DOWNEY Gerard C.	-	-	5%	32%	50%	13%
5	HELGE James R.	-	4%	17%	35%	33%	12%
6	REED David	1%	16%	53%	26%	4%	-
7	HUNTER Justin	-	1%	5%	19%	35%	30%	10%
8	BAILEY Creston P.	-	3%	16%	33%	32%	14%	3%
9	MANSKE Niul S.	-	-	-	6%	34%	60%
10	ROBERTS Peter	-	2%	13%	31%	34%	17%	3%
11	MAYCHROWITZ Matt	-	-	1%	7%	29%	44%	20%
12	KIM Jeff	2%	16%	33%	32%	14%	2%
13	WILLIAMS Brett	1%	9%	26%	36%	23%	6%
14	MURRAY Stephen D.	-	1%	9%	29%	38%	19%	3%
15	SNIDER Jeffrey H.	-	-	3%	14%	33%	35%	14%
16	BECK Brian C.	-	2%	16%	38%	34%	10%	-
17	KOERBER Christopher T.	-	2%	17%	39%	33%	9%	-
18	MCNAMARA Scott	-	1%	17%	49%	29%	4%
19	CHEN Yi Hao	2%	11%	28%	33%	20%	6%	1%
20	HILLSTROM Nathan	-	4%	21%	39%	27%	7%	1%
21	MARIANI Lou	1%	7%	24%	36%	25%	7%
22	SLOAN Ryan	-	6%	28%	40%	22%	4%	-
23	LOGUE Paul	13%	40%	34%	11%	2%	-	-
24	KUO Michael	39%	41%	17%	3%	-	-
25	WILLIAMS Brian	47%	44%	8%	-	-	-
26	WONG David	5%	30%	41%	20%	4%	-	-
27	OLSON Mark R.	6%	28%	40%	21%	5%	-	-
28	MORALES Wayne w	53%	38%	9%	1%	-	-	-
29	DUONG John	13%	53%	28%	6%	1%	-	-
30	LIN Kimball	2%	15%	33%	33%	15%	3%
31	PERALTA Christian	69%	28%	3%	-	-	-	-
32	ZHEREBCHEVSKIY Evgenii	30%	43%	22%	5%	1%	-	-
33	ROGERS John D.	32%	54%	13%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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