Troy Cullen Memorial Halloween Open (W&M)

Senior Mixed Foil

Saturday, October 26, 2024 at 9:00 AM

William & Mary Adair Gym - Williamsburg, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	O'DONNELL Breck	-	1%	13%	37%	37%	12%
2	OTT James (Jimmy) P.	-	-	5%	28%	50%	17%
3	GUMPRICH Joe P.	-	-	-	6%	42%	51%
3	SHEPHERD Conner M.	-	-	-	1%	7%	33%	60%
5	ABRAMKIN Tim	-	1%	6%	26%	47%	21%
6	TANG xianchi	4%	31%	41%	20%	4%	< 1%
7	GU Jeffrey	-	-	-	6%	33%	61%
8	EDRALIN II Chadwick Q.	-	6%	26%	42%	24%	2%
9	SEMP Iain	-	-	5%	25%	45%	25%
10	PRICE Owen	-	-	4%	19%	39%	32%	6%
11	HINDS David E.	-	-	6%	47%	40%	7%
12	POWERS Meredith R.	-	-	2%	14%	43%	40%
13	DELANNES-MOLKA Daniel	-	9%	32%	38%	18%	3%	-
14	EDRALIN Alexander Jordan Q.	-	2%	13%	36%	36%	12%
15	MAHNKEN Thomas P.	-	4%	21%	37%	29%	9%	1%
16	CONANT Aidan	-	5%	31%	41%	20%	3%
17	FORMY DUVAL Christopher	-	6%	24%	39%	25%	5%
18	FERGUSON Sam C.	-	13%	35%	35%	15%	2%
19	CONRAD Matthew	-	1%	13%	38%	37%	10%
20	DEVINNEY Dale	4%	22%	40%	27%	6%	-
21	MAHNKEN Thomas G.	-	1%	9%	31%	41%	18%
22	IVATURI Sivakrishna Nikhil	8%	31%	39%	18%	3%	-
23	BOLTON Max	1%	14%	36%	34%	14%	2%	-
24	TERPENNING Sarah	19%	40%	30%	9%	1%	-
25	DELEON Alyssia	6%	28%	41%	22%	4%	-
26	KELLEY Cullan	1%	7%	26%	37%	24%	5%
27	INGLE Kate	9%	37%	42%	12%	1%	-
28	BRUTON Vinton	79%	20%	2%	-	-	-
29	PISTONE Leah	10%	32%	37%	18%	3%	-
30	FUNK Ethan	2%	13%	35%	37%	13%	1%
31	HAVERSON Rana	29%	46%	22%	3%	-	-
32	KONTANIS Linus	-	11%	36%	38%	14%	1%
33	SAE-TUNG Kevin	12%	35%	36%	15%	2%	-
34	FIGLOZZI Cordelia	66%	29%	4%	-	-	-
35	JONES Zamauri	3%	30%	46%	19%	2%	-
36	DEMPSEY Fiona	2%	28%	50%	18%	2%	-
36	CLICK Joe	1%	7%	24%	37%	25%	6%
38	PARKER Joseph	1%	10%	35%	37%	15%	2%	-
39	CRISPIN Haley	76%	22%	2%	-	-	-	-
40	WILLIAMS Morgan	88%	11%	-	-	-	-
40	BLUHM Kyle	5%	21%	36%	28%	9%	1%
42	FISHER Edward	13%	37%	35%	13%	2%	-
43	GAGNON Charles	1%	12%	39%	37%	11%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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