CFC Foil

Div III Mixed Foil

Saturday, October 26, 2024 at 11:30 AM

Chesapeake Fencing Club - Towson, MD, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	ZHANG GAVIN J	-	1%	5%	21%	37%	29%	7%
2	HE Kyle	-	-	3%	18%	45%	34%
3	ZAPPALA Nikolai	-	1%	9%	31%	43%	16%
3	HAN Alexander	-	-	4%	23%	48%	25%
5	KIM Aiden	-	3%	14%	33%	35%	13%	1%
6	SANTIAGO Elias	-	-	6%	25%	43%	25%
7	STRADOMSKYI Klim	-	-	-	3%	17%	42%	38%
8	KOVACS Harrison	2%	14%	38%	35%	10%	1%
9	JANNEY Jonathan	-	-	-	2%	16%	48%	34%
10	NICUDEMUS Bryella	1%	8%	25%	36%	23%	6%	1%
11	GAADER JP	-	-	3%	18%	41%	32%	6%
12	GORDON Rachel A.	-	1%	5%	17%	33%	32%	12%
13	WEBER Andrew	-	5%	22%	40%	26%	6%	-
14	LAZAR Carolina	1%	11%	32%	37%	16%	2%
15	ZOU Michael	1%	9%	31%	40%	17%	3%	-
16	NSUBUGA Jeffrey	2%	14%	34%	33%	14%	3%	-
17	BARTELS Matthrw	3%	16%	34%	31%	13%	3%	-
18	STRAYER Cody	3%	19%	39%	31%	8%	1%
19	RYGIEL Luke	-	1%	6%	20%	34%	29%	10%
20	SHICK Veronika	-	6%	24%	36%	25%	7%	1%
21	MACK Ethan	11%	31%	34%	18%	5%	1%	-
22	MANLAPAZ Jan Vincent	9%	29%	36%	20%	6%	1%	-
22	ARANGO PINEDO Catalina	20%	39%	29%	11%	2%	-	-
24	LIU Anthony	1%	10%	33%	37%	17%	2%
25	PELTZER Liam	50%	39%	10%	1%	-	-
26	STANSBURY Desmond	11%	43%	34%	10%	1%	-
26	OLSON Evan	44%	41%	13%	2%	-	-
28	SINCAVAGE Louis	13%	34%	34%	15%	3%	-	-
29	SIGLER-MCCANN Finian	49%	39%	11%	1%	-	-	-
30	DIFFIE Samuel	1%	25%	41%	25%	7%	1%	-
31	EDWARDS Cooper	< 1%	3%	16%	33%	33%	13%	2%
32	MCDERMOTT Ferris	1%	7%	23%	37%	26%	7%	-
33	ZAPATA Mason	2%	40%	41%	14%	2%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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