GT Collegiate: Annual Fall Hack & Slash

Senior Mixed Foil

Sunday, November 10, 2024 at 10:00 AM

Georgia Tech Campus Recreation Center: Atlanta, GA - Atlanta, GA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	CAMPBELL Justin	-	-	-	5%	38%	57%
2	WEBB Jacob	-	-	-	8%	62%	30%
3	MITCHELL Philip	-	-	-	13%	47%	39%
3	MO Jason	-	4%	28%	47%	21%
5	SHAJI Karthik	-	-	-	-	10%	90%
6	FILLGROVE Benjamin	-	1%	9%	39%	51%
7	ERBEN Samuel	-	3%	18%	42%	35%	2%
8	SREEDHARA Chirag	-	-	4%	24%	46%	26%
9	CHEN Kuan-Ting	-	1%	7%	29%	44%	20%
10	MCARTHUR Kemp	1%	9%	34%	43%	13%
11	FRANCESCONI Joe	-	2%	24%	51%	22%	1%
12	MORLEY Mathewson	35%	47%	17%	1%	-
13	WHITE Kevin	18%	44%	30%	8%	1%	-
14	COUSINS Patrick	1%	11%	33%	39%	15%	1%
16	STAHL Jackson	3%	19%	38%	32%	9%
17	BLACK Elias	19%	44%	30%	7%	-	-
18	ARNOLD jacob	38%	44%	16%	2%	-	-
19	KADRIC Max	26%	48%	22%	4%	-
20	XIAO James	-	3%	20%	42%	29%	6%
21	MARKERT Meghan	45%	40%	13%	2%	-	-
22	OH Seonghun	-	10%	55%	31%	4%	-
23	CUOMO Jasper	16%	44%	34%	6%	-	-
24	SANDERS Andrew	2%	19%	50%	25%	3%	-
25	ZHOU Hannan	6%	31%	42%	19%	2%
26	DANIES Alejandro	-	2%	14%	36%	37%	11%
27	CUNNINGHAM Rowan	1%	16%	45%	34%	4%
28	HINTON-LAWSON Deva	-	8%	45%	42%	5%	-
29	SMITH Ella	39%	43%	16%	2%	-	-
30	ANDUJAR Gerardo	18%	60%	20%	1%	-	-
31	RIDLEY Mary Emma	2%	15%	43%	34%	6%	-
32	SUTAR Tanmay	22%	45%	28%	5%	-
33	NAM David	8%	29%	38%	21%	4%
34	TREJO-SALVATIERRA Camila	21%	68%	10%	-	-	-
35	ANDERSON Maverick	2%	30%	43%	21%	3%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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