Turkey Day Slay at NKFA

Div II Mixed Épée

Saturday, November 16, 2024 at 11:30 AM

NKFA Salle - Ludlow, KY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	BETTS Jr Anthony P.	-	1%	9%	32%	43%	15%
2	JONES Elijah	-	-	4%	44%	52%
3	EDWARDS Tim	-	-	6%	37%	56%
3	COLEMAN Corey	-	2%	11%	30%	38%	18%
5	ADAMISIN Brayden	-	2%	14%	43%	42%
6	CROSS Ryan	1%	9%	28%	37%	21%	4%
7	PRIJATEL John R.	-	2%	20%	47%	31%
8	STAUBITZ Marc	4%	20%	39%	30%	7%
9	MILLER Zach	-	2%	15%	42%	41%
10	LEWTON Grace	5%	27%	42%	23%	3%
11	HUCULAK Eerik	-	13%	49%	33%	5%
12	YORKE Evan	26%	45%	24%	5%	-
12	FULLER II Thomas	8%	29%	39%	21%	4%
14	SAYLER Gordon	1%	12%	50%	34%	3%
15	RIEMAN Tristan	7%	27%	39%	23%	4%
16	MAI Carl D.	1%	7%	29%	46%	18%
17	BRETHAUER Adah	17%	39%	32%	11%	1%
18	LUGO Emmanuel	26%	43%	24%	6%	1%	-
19	CRAFT David M.	11%	36%	36%	14%	2%
20	BAUMGARTEL Johannes	11%	41%	38%	9%	-
21	FREDERICK Ben	5%	26%	40%	24%	5%
22	TLUCHOWSKI Sam	20%	42%	30%	8%	1%
23	WICKS Landon	41%	46%	12%	1%	-
24	FUCHS Robert	17%	45%	33%	5%	-
25	BOGGESS Alexander	3%	18%	38%	32%	9%
26	KOCSIS Cherry	3%	18%	39%	30%	9%	1%
27	LOESSL Erich loessl	7%	35%	43%	13%	1%
28	SAYLER Griffin	28%	52%	19%	1%	-
28	GROVE Makenzie	24%	45%	26%	5%	-
28	ALDRIDGE Ryn	10%	35%	39%	15%	1%
31	ABUSUNDUS Ahmed	13%	37%	34%	13%	2%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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