Davis Fencing Academy 25th Anniversary All Weapon Tournament

Senior Mixed Foil

Sunday, November 17, 2024 at 9:00 AM

DFA - Davis, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7
1	WENDLER Alexander	-	-	-	-	4%	30%	66%
2	LI Jett	-	-	-	1%	12%	60%	28%
3	SCHEUERMANN Andrew	-	-	-	-	1%	35%	63%
3	TSANG Matthew	-	-	-	-	-	9%	90%
5	PEGRAM Rafferty	-	-	1%	8%	29%	42%	20%
6	BECKER Ethan	4%	26%	42%	24%	4%	-	-
7	MIETTINEN Pyry	-	4%	20%	38%	30%	8%	-
8	BHANOT Arjun	-	3%	16%	34%	33%	13%	1%	-
9	BHATT Morgane	-	-	-	-	-	4%	27%	69%
10	GOLDADE A Luke	-	-	1%	6%	25%	44%	24%
11	GUO Joey	-	-	-	8%	79%	12%	-
12	WEI Winston	-	5%	24%	41%	26%	3%	-
13	FALLON Thomas	4%	18%	34%	30%	13%	2%	-
14	VAN Tyson	-	2%	11%	32%	38%	17%	-
15	TON Kalista	-	2%	20%	38%	29%	10%	1%
16	MAZZA Daniel	5%	28%	41%	21%	4%	-	-
17	PETERSON Lucas	-	-	-	2%	14%	39%	40%	6%
18	AHN Theodore	-	4%	18%	35%	31%	11%	1%	-
19	BANDEGAN Audreen	-	2%	16%	36%	34%	12%	-
20	BOYNTON Alex	16%	42%	33%	8%	1%	-	-
21	WALKER Adam	-	6%	26%	45%	21%	3%	-
22	BHATT Jay	-	1%	6%	23%	41%	27%	2%
23	MACRAE Calvin	-	-	3%	18%	47%	30%	2%
24	YANKOPOULOS Elise	1%	5%	17%	30%	29%	15%	3%	-
25	FALLON Peter	11%	39%	37%	12%	1%	-	-
26	HONG Olivia	3%	22%	44%	29%	3%	-	-
27	HART Brennan	24%	46%	26%	4%	-	-	-
28	DIVATE Saanvi	2%	14%	33%	33%	15%	3%	-
29	CRIDLAND Trent	8%	32%	41%	18%	1%	-	-
30	ZANDER Maxx	4%	19%	33%	28%	12%	3%	-	-
31	REKSOSAMUDRA Ashley	27%	44%	23%	5%	-	-	-	-
32	HELPIO Olivia	14%	36%	33%	14%	3%	-	-
33	VIZCARRA Nathan	18%	42%	32%	8%	-	-	-
34	HUNTINGDALE Dane	2%	16%	34%	31%	14%	3%	-	-
35	WONG Jessica	48%	41%	11%	1%	-	-	-
36	DOBBINS Mateo	51%	38%	10%	1%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.