GRAFA RYC\RJCC\ROC- Third Coast Cup

Y-12 Men's Foil

Saturday, November 23, 2024 at 8:00 AM

MSA Fieldhouse - Grand Rapids, MI, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	TAN Charlie	-	-	-	-	4%	26%	69%
2	DESERANNO Leander	-	-	-	-	3%	64%	34%
3	WENGER Rowan	-	1%	5%	20%	36%	29%	8%
3	GE Felix Fei	-	-	-	2%	13%	41%	44%
5	WANG Caleb	-	-	1%	9%	28%	40%	21%
6	MORALES Tycho	-	2%	11%	29%	37%	18%	3%
7	WANG William	-	3%	17%	37%	33%	10%
8	WANG Freyr	1%	10%	28%	35%	20%	5%	1%
9	ZHAO Jason	-	1%	5%	24%	43%	27%
10	XU Jason	-	-	2%	10%	29%	39%	19%
11	ZHENG Lerui	-	1%	7%	27%	44%	19%	2%
12	MADDES Gage	2%	18%	42%	32%	5%	< 1%	-
13	ROUS Miguel	-	-	1%	9%	31%	44%	15%
14	LI Andy	-	1%	5%	20%	36%	30%	9%
15	HYUN Francis	8%	29%	37%	20%	4%	-	-
16	CHOI Junwoo	-	4%	18%	34%	31%	12%	1%
17	PAYNE Lynas	-	3%	15%	32%	33%	14%	1%
18	GARCIA Fabricio	2%	13%	32%	34%	17%	3%	-
19	LIM-SEIWERT Cassian	30%	42%	22%	6%	1%	-	-
20	SALINAS Oliver	-	-	1%	8%	27%	43%	21%
21	YU Ryan	19%	39%	30%	11%	2%	-	-
22	XUE Lucas	3%	15%	33%	32%	15%	3%	-
23	KOSCIK-AQUINO Nicholas	4%	19%	36%	29%	11%	2%	-
24	MCCOOL Henry	1%	6%	22%	35%	27%	8%	-
25	JIAO Daniel	-	2%	14%	36%	36%	12%
26	TAGORE Ayansh	4%	23%	41%	25%	6%	1%
27	DHALIWAL Zorawar Singh	4%	21%	38%	28%	8%	-	-
28	PALMERKLEIN Justin	11%	32%	35%	18%	4%	-	-
29	BROWN Rhys	3%	17%	35%	31%	12%	2%	-
30	WILLIAMS Thomas	20%	42%	30%	7%	1%	-	-
31	MARVEL Elliot	22%	44%	26%	7%	1%	-
32	HAN Jinha	14%	36%	33%	14%	3%	-	-
33	KRESS Elias	23%	41%	26%	8%	1%	-	-
34	DURAI Dheeraj	25%	44%	25%	6%	1%	-
35	MEI Edan	1%	17%	41%	31%	9%	1%	-
36	GROSS Eli	-	4%	23%	42%	27%	5%	-
37	VLIEM Henry	19%	40%	29%	10%	2%	-	-
38	CARLGREN Felix	-	< 1%	2%	11%	29%	38%	19%
39	YIN Andrew	2%	14%	32%	33%	16%	3%	-
40	BOSNJAK Parker	8%	29%	38%	20%	4%	-	-
41	ZUIDEMA Harrison	12%	34%	34%	16%	4%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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