Bay Cup: JWF4 JMF4 DV1XF2 DV2WF2 DV2MF2 UWF2 UMF2

Junior Men's Foil

Sunday, April 28, 2019 at 10:00 AM

The Fencing Center - San Jose, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	BERMENDER Cameron	-	-	1%	9%	36%	53%
2	OH Samuel H.	-	5%	20%	36%	30%	10%
3	FERNANDES Zain	-	2%	13%	35%	37%	13%
3	LAO Scott E.	1%	9%	26%	36%	23%	5%
5	LI Raphael C.	-	2%	11%	31%	38%	17%
6	CHOI Ethan L.	-	1%	10%	33%	42%	14%
7	CARTER Lucas M.	-	7%	29%	42%	20%	2%
8	DARIANO Noah G.	-	11%	37%	37%	13%	1%
9	SOHN Christopher	-	-	2%	14%	43%	42%
10	SHERMAN Marco J.	-	1%	8%	28%	41%	22%
11	OTAKE Jared K.	1%	9%	27%	36%	22%	5%
12	LOMBARDI Leo	-	6%	22%	37%	27%	7%
13	SCHUR Skyler	11%	32%	35%	18%	4%	-
14	CHIN Jason Y.	-	1%	13%	40%	38%	7%
15	KO Tyler B.	4%	21%	36%	28%	10%	1%
16	DAVIS Christopher M.	-	5%	20%	36%	30%	9%
17	TSANG Matthew K.	-	8%	36%	40%	15%	1%
18	MAO Connor	1%	11%	30%	35%	19%	4%
19	CHOI Samuel	1%	12%	36%	35%	14%	2%
20	CHIN Julian S.	-	7%	31%	41%	19%	3%
21	MASCARI DUMONT Alexandre	35%	41%	19%	4%	-	-
22	HSIUNG Richie	1%	13%	35%	35%	14%	2%
23	NGUYEN Kevin	34%	44%	18%	3%	-	-
24	OCKENFUSS Jeremiah J.	6%	41%	39%	13%	2%	-
25	WESTELIUS Isak R.	1%	6%	22%	36%	27%	8%
26	MURATA Akitoshi D.	45%	49%	6%	-	-	-
26	LIM Charles Q.	16%	41%	32%	10%	2%	-
28	VINOD Konark	24%	44%	25%	6%	1%	-
28	MARSHALL Wyeth	30%	45%	21%	4%	-	-
30	LIZARRAGA Sebastian	80%	19%	1%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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