East Coast Challenge RJCC

Cadet Women's Épée

Saturday, May 11, 2019 at 8:00 AM

Rockaway, NJ - Rockaway, NJ, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	TYLER Syd	-	-	1%	5%	20%	41%	34%
2	KUZNETSOV Victoria	-	-	5%	25%	45%	25%
3	WADE-CURRIE Ava S.	-	-	2%	17%	46%	35%
3	DROVETSKY Alexandra M.	-	1%	7%	27%	42%	23%
5	MEHROTRA Anya	-	1%	11%	35%	39%	14%
6	YAO Jillian	-	2%	11%	28%	35%	20%	4%
7	EBRAHIM Ameera H.	-	5%	24%	44%	23%	4%
8	HU Grace	-	1%	8%	29%	42%	20%
9	SAAL Anna	1%	10%	38%	37%	14%	2%
10	ZHANG Tina	-	-	-	4%	24%	47%	24%
11	KOWALSKY Rachel A.	-	2%	13%	33%	37%	15%
12	LU Junyao	-	2%	11%	31%	39%	16%
13	LUO Ashley	-	1%	8%	35%	41%	15%
14	ALVIDREZ Francesca A.	-	-	4%	25%	45%	25%
15	GU Sarah	-	-	5%	25%	47%	23%
16	GAO Judy	1%	9%	29%	37%	20%	4%
17	LIN Katie Y.	-	-	-	3%	18%	46%	34%
18	XU Grace (XinYi)	-	-	7%	32%	43%	18%
19	PAN Michelle	2%	21%	43%	26%	6%	1%
20	LIN Waiyuk	-	4%	17%	35%	33%	11%
21	DE JAGER Celine	1%	6%	21%	35%	27%	9%	1%
22	HICKS Grace	10%	35%	37%	15%	2%	-	-
23	ZAKHAROV Anne E.	7%	42%	38%	11%	1%	-
24	PARTE Isabella B.	18%	41%	30%	9%	1%	-
25	GAJJALA Sharika R.	2%	14%	34%	34%	14%	2%
26	WANG anne	-	2%	12%	30%	35%	18%	3%
27	KOKES Ava	2%	13%	31%	33%	17%	4%	-
28	SLACKMAN Valerie	2%	18%	37%	31%	11%	1%
29	YANG Miranda (Yinuo)	-	1%	9%	31%	42%	18%
30	LEE Olive	1%	7%	25%	37%	25%	6%
31	SHEN Stephanie	9%	30%	36%	20%	5%	-
32	XU Jessica	41%	41%	15%	3%	-	-	-
33	WU Fan	-	1%	5%	24%	43%	24%	4%
34	CORDERO Allison	7%	33%	41%	17%	3%	-
35	ZENG Katrina	3%	31%	46%	18%	3%	-
36	MURRELL Jessica L.	53%	37%	9%	1%	-	-
37	CHANG Ella	1%	12%	34%	37%	14%	2%	-
38	REID Anousheh	-	2%	14%	39%	35%	10%
39	MING Cynthia	16%	52%	27%	5%	-	-
40	CHERNYSHOVA Victoria	-	1%	12%	36%	38%	13%
41	HARJANI Meher	61%	34%	5%	-	-	-
42	LEE Anna	4%	39%	43%	12%	1%	-
43	SINGH Aayushi	79%	19%	1%	-	-	-
43	BONAR Natalia	26%	42%	24%	6%	1%	-
45	SCHMULTS Sophie W.	4%	24%	41%	25%	5%	-	-
46	GUZZI Jordan	40%	42%	15%	2%	-	-	-
47	APPLEBEE Andralyn	7%	36%	41%	14%	2%	-
49	HOSANAGAR Inchara	70%	26%	3%	-	-	-
50	LI Alisha	6%	26%	37%	23%	7%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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