1st Annual Battle Born RYC and RJC

Y-12 Men's Épée

Friday, December 13, 2024 at 11:00 AM

Tarkanian Basketball Center - Las Vegas, NV, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	MOSLEY Wally	-	-	-	2%	13%	40%	45%
2	DU Evan	-	-	-	2%	12%	38%	48%
3	WU Nathan	-	-	2%	12%	40%	47%
3	RONG Marcus	-	-	1%	6%	24%	42%	27%
5	TIAN Dylan	2%	12%	33%	36%	15%	2%
6	LIN Daniel	2%	14%	35%	34%	13%	2%	-
7	SHOURIE Seth	-	3%	15%	37%	36%	9%
8	XUE Michael	-	-	1%	7%	28%	43%	21%
9	LIU Xuyao	-	3%	13%	30%	34%	17%	3%
10	KROTZ Nicolas	-	6%	22%	37%	28%	7%
11	SHOURIE Neel	-	1%	5%	20%	37%	30%	7%
12	CHOI SIWON	-	-	2%	13%	34%	37%	14%
13	LI Connor	-	5%	20%	35%	29%	10%	1%
14	WONG Alexander	-	1%	7%	27%	42%	23%
15	WONG Kyle	-	1%	9%	27%	36%	22%	4%
16	SHIH Derek	-	2%	11%	29%	35%	19%	4%
17	LI Ethan	3%	18%	34%	30%	12%	2%	-
18	YU Brandon	-	4%	19%	37%	31%	9%
19	GUO Jonathan	1%	10%	30%	36%	19%	4%
20	KIM Evan	-	1%	7%	26%	41%	25%
21	KHUSHRAJ Rohan	-	5%	22%	36%	26%	8%	1%
22	TAVERNA Matteo	5%	21%	35%	27%	10%	2%	-
23	CHAN Nathan	2%	13%	33%	36%	15%	2%
24	NOLAN Morgan	6%	24%	36%	25%	8%	1%	-
25	PARK Sihoon	-	5%	19%	35%	30%	11%	1%
26	YUN Nicholas	3%	16%	34%	31%	13%	2%
27	VENERACION Marcus	4%	21%	38%	28%	8%	1%
28	HUA Nolan	-	-	4%	17%	35%	33%	11%
29	NGUYEN Ethan V.	2%	12%	28%	33%	20%	5%	-
30	YOON Ian	14%	39%	32%	12%	2%	-	-
31	HUR Tyson	6%	24%	35%	24%	8%	1%	-
32	LU Jayden	8%	30%	37%	20%	5%	1%	-
33	YUN Mason	4%	18%	34%	30%	12%	2%	-
34	LEE Daniel	28%	42%	23%	6%	1%	-
35	YOO Lucas	-	4%	16%	32%	32%	14%	2%
36	HUNG Ludwig	27%	43%	24%	6%	1%	-
36	LAU Caleb	8%	29%	36%	20%	5%	-
38	LAU Jesse	8%	35%	39%	15%	2%	-
39	DEMIRCHIAN Edward	6%	24%	36%	25%	8%	1%	-
40	CHU Clayton	14%	34%	33%	16%	4%	-	-
41	LEE Connor	20%	40%	29%	10%	2%	-	-
42	WON Jacob	13%	37%	35%	13%	2%	-
43	CHENFU Jaden	< 1%	11%	33%	37%	17%	3%
44	BRIDGEWATER Beckman	28%	42%	23%	6%	1%	-
45	GAN Samuel	24%	41%	26%	7%	1%	-	-
45	SI Alexander	37%	43%	17%	3%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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