Ultimate Fencing Cup RYC

Y-12 Men's Foil

Sunday, December 22, 2024 at 12:00 PM

John J. Moore Athletics and Fitness Center - Jersey City, NJ, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	XIAN Kevin	-	-	-	1%	17%	81%
2	SIU Max	-	-	2%	14%	40%	43%
3	PLUMMER Waylon	-	1%	6%	24%	41%	28%
3	WANG Mendy	-	-	1%	7%	34%	59%
5	ZHANG Ethan	1%	12%	32%	35%	16%	3%
6	GRIGORIEV Michael	-	-	-	-	3%	27%	70%
7	KIAYIAS Alexander	-	2%	10%	29%	40%	20%
8	SONG Enoch	-	1%	7%	27%	42%	23%
9	ZHONG Kingsley	-	-	4%	19%	39%	33%	5%
10	HU Michael	-	3%	18%	38%	32%	9%
11	CAO Aaron	1%	8%	26%	37%	23%	5%
12	LIU jeremy	2%	13%	31%	34%	17%	3%
13	MONDESIR Chace	1%	14%	37%	36%	12%	1%
14	CHOI Hunter	-	4%	17%	35%	33%	11%
15	AMR HOSSNY Adam	2%	14%	32%	34%	16%	3%
16	TIAN Dylan	14%	35%	33%	14%	3%	-
17	DENG Jonathan	-	6%	31%	49%	13%	1%
18	RICHMAN Aaron	12%	34%	34%	16%	3%	-	-
19	SHAW Eric	-	5%	22%	42%	28%	2%
20	HUANG Dalynn	-	2%	15%	36%	35%	11%
21	LEE Kyle	2%	15%	37%	33%	12%	2%
22	CHAO ABU MINGZE	3%	18%	36%	31%	11%	1%
23	JIANG Ethan	5%	31%	41%	19%	3%	-
24	MACKENZIE Dylan	-	4%	18%	36%	31%	10%	1%
25	LIN Ziyue	2%	12%	30%	35%	18%	3%
26	BRADY David	2%	18%	40%	31%	8%	-
27	TIAN Andy	3%	22%	39%	27%	8%	1%
27	CONVERSO-PARSONS Alexander	6%	24%	37%	25%	8%	1%
29	WU Connor	1%	9%	27%	36%	21%	5%	-
30	CHONG Cooper	11%	41%	35%	12%	2%	-
31	LEVKOVICH Avery	11%	32%	35%	18%	4%	-
32	CHEN Kevin	7%	36%	43%	13%	1%	-
33	GENG Vincent	3%	26%	41%	25%	5%	-
34	DEVISETTY Sohun	-	-	2%	24%	63%	10%
35	RAY Callum	8%	28%	37%	21%	6%	1%
36	NAYAK Saideep	59%	34%	6%	-	-	-
37	CUI Hanwen	42%	40%	15%	3%	-	-
38	ELAGROUDY Ali	13%	35%	34%	15%	3%	-	-
39	SNYDER Winston	1%	7%	26%	40%	23%	3%
40	WANG Grant	28%	42%	24%	6%	1%	-
41	MACK Julian	8%	29%	38%	21%	5%	-	-
42	MARTINSON Finn	51%	38%	9%	1%	-	-
43	ZHANG Vincent	63%	31%	5%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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