Fairfax Challenge SYC/RCC & Y8

Y-12 Women's Foil

Friday, September 20, 2019 at 8:00 AM

Fredericksburg, VA - Fredericksburg, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	SENIC Adeline	-	-	-	5%	22%	42%	30%
2	LIU Jaelyn A.	-	4%	19%	38%	31%	9%
3	ORVANANOS ANICE	-	-	5%	29%	47%	19%
3	MATOS Lívia	-	-	-	5%	26%	44%	24%
5	LEE Lavender	-	-	6%	23%	38%	27%	6%
6	CHO Rebecca H.	-	-	1%	15%	45%	39%
7	FEDELI Caterina S.	-	-	2%	13%	39%	45%
8	LIU Angel(Daying)	-	1%	13%	44%	35%	8%
9	SEO IRENE Y.	2%	12%	31%	36%	18%	2%
10	TAN Kaitlyn N.	-	-	-	3%	20%	48%	29%
11	EYER Hailey M.	-	1%	10%	32%	40%	17%
12	PAULUS Isabella	1%	19%	46%	31%	4%	-	-
13	KOKES Gwendolen	8%	28%	37%	21%	6%	-
14	SIMONOV Dasha	-	1%	10%	31%	40%	18%
15	TUCKER ALARCON Frida	4%	26%	40%	23%	6%	1%
16	SHMAY Anastasia	12%	33%	35%	16%	3%	-
17	SHA Yi Ling	-	-	8%	28%	38%	22%	4%
18	GOOR Viviene E.	-	-	5%	27%	44%	21%	3%
19	WILLIS Fletcher L.	-	2%	18%	37%	31%	11%	1%
20	WANG Jasmine	6%	29%	40%	21%	5%	-
21	DOROSHKEVICH Taisiia	1%	9%	27%	37%	22%	4%
22	SOLDATOVA Maria	-	1%	14%	36%	34%	13%	2%
23	NEWSON Grace	1%	23%	45%	26%	4%	-	-
24	MEI Sarah	23%	58%	17%	2%	-	-
25	CHAGARES Isabella	60%	36%	4%	-	-	-
26	BIODROWICZ Julia	1%	14%	52%	27%	5%	-
27	OWENS Elise	-	10%	30%	35%	19%	5%	-
28	PAULUS Sloane	37%	53%	9%	1%	-	-	-
29	SHIM Grace	50%	38%	10%	1%	-	-
30	KAPUSTINA Arina	11%	32%	36%	18%	4%	-
31	KOKE Kristen	87%	13%	1%	-	-	-	-
31	ZHANG Alina	50%	45%	5%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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