January NAC

Veteran Women's Saber

Sunday, January 5, 2025 at 2:30 PM

Kansas City Convention Center - Kansas City, MO, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	KALKINA Yelena	-	-	-	1%	13%	44%	41%
2	MARTINEZ ELIZALDE Giselle	-	-	4%	21%	44%	31%
3	FOLEY Eileen	-	2%	12%	33%	38%	14%	2%
3	KONG Zhao xia	-	3%	18%	37%	32%	10%
5	STEYER Meredith J.	-	-	1%	9%	31%	41%	19%
6	LIM Nona	-	1%	11%	37%	40%	12%
7	KOSZYK Agnieszka	1%	11%	33%	37%	16%	2%
8	YANG Jenny J.	-	3%	19%	39%	31%	8%
9	GRAJALES Emily K.	-	4%	20%	38%	30%	8%
10	ENOCHS Liz	-	-	1%	12%	35%	38%	14%
11	RUNYAN Heidi	-	-	-	5%	25%	47%	22%
12	WILLEMSE Jamie	-	3%	18%	38%	32%	9%
13	JOHNSON Laura S.	-	-	2%	18%	44%	35%
14	KING Robin E.	-	8%	40%	38%	12%	1%
15	DUDNICK Shannon	3%	28%	42%	22%	5%	-
16	SIERRA Kate	-	-	4%	20%	43%	33%
17	DEMING Clare L.	-	1%	11%	33%	40%	15%
18	OBLONSKY Natalia	-	-	2%	16%	38%	34%	10%
19	ZHANG Lynn Y.	-	1%	14%	39%	36%	10%
20	CHANCO-EVERETT Aileen	4%	30%	40%	21%	5%	-
21	STARR Cynthia (Cindy) H.	5%	29%	40%	21%	4%	-	-
22	WEBB Maud	25%	47%	24%	4%	-	-	-
23	ALTMAN Leigh	1%	14%	36%	34%	13%	2%
24	FREYRE Rebecca R.	1%	12%	35%	35%	15%	2%
25	SUZUKI HAN Alisa	72%	25%	3%	-	-	-
26	VANCE Beth S.	-	1%	9%	32%	37%	17%	3%
27	LAPP Laurie E.	2%	17%	37%	31%	10%	1%	-
28	VINOGOROVA Daria	55%	36%	8%	1%	-	-
29	BENDER Jeannine M.	-	1%	9%	29%	40%	20%
30	DEGEN Anita L.	52%	37%	10%	1%	-	-	-
31	FEITLER Sarah	7%	32%	42%	16%	2%	-	-
32	HIRSCH Lauren	59%	37%	4%	-	-	-
33	IIZUKA Sawako	26%	57%	16%	1%	-	-
34	EARLS Elizabeth A.	2%	14%	35%	35%	13%	2%	-
35	ROWLAND May	69%	27%	4%	-	-	-
36	LUM Karen	2%	21%	41%	28%	8%	1%
37	GORDON Sharon	7%	34%	39%	18%	3%	-
38	MASLEN Cheryl L.	30%	47%	20%	3%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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