NEUSFA Epee and Foil Open @ Vivo

Senior Mixed Épée

Saturday, January 11, 2025 at 9:00 AM

Vivo Fencing Club - Haverhill, MA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	RADZIKOWSKI Sam	4%	20%	34%	29%	12%	2%
2	BELLIVEAU Emmett	-	1%	5%	24%	44%	26%
3	LI Ray	2%	14%	32%	33%	16%	3%
3	WANG-SONG Evan	-	-	5%	22%	40%	27%	5%
5	SMITH Troy	-	-	3%	18%	44%	30%	5%
6	MICKEY Christopher	-	-	3%	14%	33%	36%	14%
7	SONG Changze	1%	7%	25%	38%	24%	5%
8	SACCOMANNO Shelby	-	-	1%	7%	26%	42%	23%
9	DJONOUMA Toyohm	-	-	-	1%	11%	37%	51%
10	MCMILLAN Jackson V.	1%	7%	22%	35%	27%	8%
11	LI Alice	-	-	5%	22%	43%	30%
12	QUIRK Dylan	-	4%	22%	41%	27%	5%
13	MARTONE Matt	-	1%	9%	29%	41%	19%
14	BRASSARD Calvin	1%	10%	29%	36%	19%	4%	-
15	WHITE Aidan	-	3%	17%	34%	32%	13%	1%
16	DOWD Peter	-	3%	15%	34%	34%	13%
17	BAZZANA Beniamino	4%	20%	38%	29%	9%	1%
18	SPRINGER Elijah	-	4%	19%	37%	30%	10%	1%
19	WILSON Ian	2%	14%	33%	33%	15%	3%
20	ERIKSEN Casey	1%	23%	43%	26%	6%	1%	-
21	KELLEY Hayden	1%	11%	31%	37%	17%	3%
22	WOHL Martin	3%	18%	34%	30%	13%	2%
23	REINEKE Gerhard	13%	37%	35%	13%	2%	-
24	OSHIMA Robert	6%	44%	37%	12%	2%	-
25	MCGANN Grant	17%	44%	33%	6%	-	-	-
26	MECHREFE Anthony	30%	43%	22%	5%	-	-
27	STOCKTON Catherine	13%	37%	35%	13%	2%	-	-
28	COVINO Mila	6%	23%	34%	25%	9%	2%	-
29	VILLARS Philip	4%	26%	40%	23%	6%	1%	-
30	RICHARDS Elsa	47%	38%	12%	2%	-	-	-
31	DECATIFF Sophia	19%	40%	29%	9%	1%	-
32	LITMAN Polina	32%	48%	17%	2%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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