Sword in the Cake

Div III Mixed Épée

Saturday, January 18, 2025 at 2:00 PM

Bay Regional Fencing Alliance - Freeland, MI, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4
1 PECKENS Tyler 100% 100% 96% 67% 16%
2 FANG Yunhan 100% 92% 60% 20% 2%
3 GREEN Zachary J. 100% 100% 92% 62% 19%
3 KERSTEN Ryan 100% 95% 71% 33% 6%
5 GOODMAN Jason M. 100% 100% 94% 67% 20%
6 WIDMANN Ceili 100% 87% 50% 15% 2%
6 SCOTT Fredric 100% 89% 53% 16% 2%
8 STONE Wesley 100% 100% 95% 66% 15%
9 GREEN Douglas R. 100% 91% 59% 20% 2%
10 STEMLER Tyler 100% 99% 87% 51% 13%
11 KENDALL Chris 100% 100% 95% 73% 31%
12 OXIE Matthew 100% 94% 55% 9% -
13 JUSTICE Brevyn 100% 89% 56% 20% 3%
14 FAZAKAS Sandor-Matyas 100% 99% 86% 42% 7%
15 OWENS Carrie M. 100% 96% 76% 38% 8%
16 GUGINO Esmeralda 100% 96% 73% 31% 3%
17 HANNOUCHI Said 100% 99% 82% 37% 6%
18 MCKEE Rachael 100% 89% 54% 17% 2%
19 UNDERHILL Jeff 100% 99% 71% 25% 3%
20 KLINE Jason 100% 97% 68% 12% 1%
21 GONZALEZ Marcello 100% 98% 82% 46% 11%
22 ALSTROM Lillian 100% 45% 7% - -
23 MANKEL Kyleigh 100% 85% 46% 11% 1%
24 ALJOHANI Mariya 100% 85% 46% 13% 1%
25 TOBIN Maryjane 100% 93% 54% 12% 1%

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.