South Coast Mary Rafanelli RYC/RJC

Junior Women's Épée

Saturday, January 18, 2025 at 10:00 AM

Intercontinental - Los Angeles Hotel - Los Angeles, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	HUANG Lanlan	-	3%	13%	31%	37%	17%
2	WU Jessica	1%	6%	20%	35%	29%	9%
3	BUSH emma	-	-	-	1%	6%	32%	62%
3	MENDOZA zoie	-	2%	13%	34%	37%	14%
5	MAI Mailan	-	-	9%	36%	42%	13%
6	ELSTON Sophia	-	-	-	1%	6%	32%	61%
7	ENRILE Erica	-	1%	7%	28%	43%	22%
8	JAMES Ashley	-	4%	17%	34%	32%	12%	1%
9	KANE Chloe	-	1%	5%	20%	39%	31%	5%
10	ROBLES Claudia	-	4%	19%	36%	30%	10%	1%
11	RASHID Summer	6%	28%	38%	22%	6%	1%	-
12	GUESNARD Maelig	-	4%	18%	38%	31%	9%
13	WANG Victoria	-	1%	7%	28%	43%	21%
14	CHUNG Penelope	-	1%	8%	28%	42%	22%
15	BLANCO Ariia	-	5%	24%	41%	25%	5%
16	WANG Angelina	-	1%	8%	29%	41%	20%
17	BROWN Riley	-	2%	11%	33%	39%	16%
18	KAUR Jaap	1%	7%	26%	39%	23%	5%
19	HERD Angela	-	3%	16%	34%	33%	13%	1%
20	JAQUISH Zoey	1%	16%	48%	28%	6%	-
21	KROTZ Gemma	10%	29%	35%	20%	5%	1%
22	MANDAP Svetlanna	-	-	2%	15%	44%	39%
23	CHEONG Chloe	1%	11%	36%	36%	14%	2%
24	BLAETZ Isadora	6%	23%	35%	26%	9%	1%
25	GAGARING Genia	5%	21%	35%	27%	10%	1%
26	MANDAP Alessandra	1%	11%	33%	36%	16%	2%
27	SCANLAN Claire	-	1%	11%	40%	38%	10%
28	ZHAO Yanning	3%	17%	35%	31%	12%	2%	-
29	GRAZIANO Ruby Mae	3%	18%	36%	30%	12%	2%	-
30	FISCHBEIN Quinley	4%	21%	39%	27%	8%	1%
31	LU Chloe	22%	44%	26%	7%	1%	-
32	LI Chloe	31%	45%	20%	4%	-	-
33	LEE Adelynn	2%	13%	32%	34%	16%	3%	-
34	SHETTY Nandita	31%	44%	20%	4%	-	-
35	MOHEBI Neeka	5%	21%	35%	27%	10%	1%
36	SCANLAN Alina Nev	20%	48%	26%	6%	1%	-
37	RAPTIS Layla	17%	55%	24%	3%	-	-
38	HASIM Eurietta	-	1%	8%	26%	38%	23%	3%
39	SUN Zhanwen	16%	41%	32%	10%	1%	-
40	MOORE Christiahn	4%	22%	38%	27%	8%	1%	-
41	UEMURA Lyllia	40%	41%	16%	3%	-	-	-
42	PAK Ella	64%	33%	4%	-	-	-
43	LUCENA Yaretzi	46%	42%	11%	1%	-	-
44	CHAE Avery	47%	39%	12%	2%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.