South Coast Mary Rafanelli RYC/RJC

Junior Women's Foil

Monday, January 20, 2025 at 1:30 PM

Intercontinental - Los Angeles Hotel - Los Angeles, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	ZOU Ella	-	-	1%	9%	40%	50%
2	HSU Kaylin	-	-	-	2%	26%	72%
3	CHOI Kailyn	-	1%	8%	24%	36%	25%	6%
3	XIE Su	-	-	3%	22%	48%	26%
5	PEDERSEN Haley	-	4%	26%	46%	21%	3%
6	LEVESQUE Brielle	-	4%	21%	40%	29%	6%
7	VO Bao-Vy	-	-	4%	22%	47%	27%
8	DUAN Sophie	-	3%	28%	51%	17%
9	SAIFEE Lamya	-	-	3%	16%	42%	39%
10	KIM Sydney	-	-	4%	25%	57%	13%
11	LIU Samantha	-	-	2%	12%	30%	38%	18%
12	POEI Lauren	-	-	6%	29%	48%	17%
13	DESAI Esha	-	17%	51%	29%	4%
14	YONG Rosalind	-	3%	18%	39%	32%	8%
15	ZHANG Ivy	-	1%	5%	18%	35%	31%	10%
16	FANG Kelervia	2%	23%	43%	26%	6%	-
17	HOBSON Ava	-	-	2%	16%	46%	36%
18	AYUPOVA AMELIYA	-	-	7%	38%	55%
19	WYNN Kylie	-	-	3%	18%	47%	32%
20	KIM Lauren	3%	31%	43%	20%	3%	-
21	VILLARAMA Kara	-	9%	33%	41%	16%	2%
22	ZONG Melody	3%	15%	31%	32%	16%	4%	-
23	MONAT Jennifer	5%	21%	35%	27%	11%	2%	-
24	CHANG Janelle	-	8%	45%	37%	9%	1%
25	FAN Sophia	7%	35%	41%	16%	2%	-
26	SAH Madeleine	2%	19%	42%	31%	5%	-
27	TANG Tang	5%	32%	39%	19%	4%	-
28	HUGHES Liv	11%	31%	35%	18%	5%	1%	-
29	HAN Gian	1%	10%	34%	40%	14%	1%
30	LAY Apollonia	2%	16%	41%	33%	9%	1%
31	GUO Audrey	2%	18%	41%	30%	8%	1%
32	WILLIAMSON Tessa	12%	33%	34%	17%	4%	-	-
33	MATTUPALLI Ashwika	3%	23%	43%	27%	4%	-
33	LUCAS Ava	21%	47%	27%	6%	-	-
35	GUTIERREZ Gia	26%	54%	17%	2%	-	-
36	IDANAWANG Madison	41%	44%	13%	1%	-	-
37	LI Chelsea	1%	56%	36%	6%	-
38	IDANAWANG Allison	78%	20%	2%	-	-	-
39	CHEN Chelsea	97%	3%	-	-	-
40	BHANGOO Paloma	54%	40%	5%	-	-	-
41	XI Sophia	55%	36%	8%	1%	-	-
42	BUI Aubrie	67%	29%	4%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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