South Coast Mary Rafanelli RYC/RJC

Y-12 Women's Saber

Monday, January 20, 2025 at 2:00 PM

Intercontinental - Los Angeles Hotel - Los Angeles, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	LONG Jessie	-	-	-	2%	14%	42%	41%
2	KIM Saeren	-	-	-	2%	13%	39%	45%
3	CHANG Kaitlyn	-	1%	9%	28%	38%	20%	3%
3	CAO Kim	-	2%	11%	29%	36%	19%	3%
5	HWANG Sophie	-	-	1%	9%	40%	51%
6	HU Ashley	-	-	7%	25%	38%	24%	6%
7	PARK Chloe	-	-	6%	24%	38%	26%	6%
8	CHEN Cindy	-	-	1%	6%	24%	42%	26%
9	BABOLDASHTIAN Rosegol	-	-	3%	15%	34%	35%	12%
10	RUSMEVICHIENTONG Lyla	-	-	2%	17%	44%	36%
11	DUFF Caitlin	1%	7%	25%	38%	24%	5%
12	WANG April	-	3%	15%	34%	33%	13%	2%
13	CAI Joanna	-	1%	8%	34%	44%	13%
14	LONG Chloe	-	-	3%	15%	34%	35%	13%
15	NGUYEN Summer	-	-	2%	11%	34%	40%	13%
16	TABANCAY Ava	2%	13%	31%	33%	16%	4%	-
17	CHENG Anna	-	-	4%	19%	36%	31%	10%
18	CHENG Zijuan "Grace"	-	3%	18%	39%	32%	7%
19	SHI Maxine	-	1%	8%	32%	43%	16%
20	DENG Oscar	16%	42%	34%	8%	1%	-
21	WOO Ava	-	1%	6%	22%	42%	30%
22	WANG Makayla	3%	19%	38%	30%	10%	1%
23	SONG Phoebe	4%	22%	38%	26%	9%	1%	-
23	VIGNEUX Nolwenn	4%	20%	37%	29%	9%	1%	-
25	LIU Isabel	-	3%	14%	33%	33%	15%	2%
26	LI Cici	-	2%	16%	45%	31%	6%
27	SUTHERLAND Sadie	1%	12%	38%	36%	12%	1%
28	LEE Jadyn	3%	17%	34%	31%	13%	2%	-
29	XU Ella	12%	34%	35%	16%	3%	-	-
30	CHANG Kylie	-	2%	10%	27%	36%	21%	4%
31	LIU Anya	24%	42%	26%	7%	1%	-
32	WU Melody	19%	44%	30%	6%	-	-
33	TAN Angela	19%	39%	29%	10%	2%	-	-
34	ZHONG Alexandra	27%	50%	20%	3%	-	-
35	GUERVILLE Angelique	-	4%	25%	42%	24%	4%
36	ASHIKHMINA Agniya	-	8%	33%	37%	18%	4%	-
37	GUO YUKI	3%	16%	33%	31%	14%	3%	-
38	SHUBINA Maya	22%	44%	28%	6%	-	-
39	LAD Ariya	42%	45%	12%	1%	-	-
40	LIQUARD Lea	9%	29%	35%	20%	6%	1%	-
41	SHIH Cayla	47%	39%	12%	2%	-	-	-
42	ZHONG Victoria	74%	24%	2%	-	-	-	-
43	FANG Lauren	16%	39%	31%	11%	2%	-
44	ZHOU kelsey	11%	53%	29%	6%	1%	-	-
44	BAEK Aileen	6%	28%	38%	22%	6%	1%	-
46	LIU Kaylee	23%	42%	27%	7%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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