The Fencing Center Winter RJCC

Cadet Women's Foil

Sunday, January 26, 2025 at 1:00 PM

The Fencing Center - San Jose, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	CASTANEDA Keira	-	-	-	2%	15%	41%	41%
2	ZHANG Ivy	-	-	1%	7%	28%	43%	22%
3	PENG Charlotte	-	-	1%	12%	35%	38%	13%
3	YONG Rosalind	-	-	1%	11%	35%	38%	14%
5	MANIKTALA Prisha	-	-	-	1%	8%	35%	57%
6	GUAN Adeline	-	-	1%	10%	30%	40%	18%
7	HOVAGHIMIAN Fira	-	-	1%	9%	30%	41%	19%
8	LUO Miranda	-	1%	10%	29%	38%	19%	3%
9	VO Bao-Vy	-	-	-	3%	16%	42%	40%
10	LIU Ariana	-	1%	7%	24%	39%	25%	4%
11	LIU Ziyu	-	-	-	4%	20%	45%	31%
12	NEUMANN Erika	-	2%	12%	31%	36%	17%	3%
13	THERON Zoe	-	-	4%	19%	37%	32%	8%
13	LENK Sophie	-	-	1%	7%	28%	43%	20%
15	CHANG Lydia	3%	22%	39%	27%	8%	1%	-
16	GU Chen	-	2%	10%	28%	37%	20%	2%
17	MATTUPALLI Ashwika	1%	8%	28%	37%	21%	5%	-
18	BOLES Amanda X.	-	-	3%	15%	35%	36%	10%
19	LI Joy	-	1%	6%	23%	38%	26%	6%
20	XIA Isabella	3%	19%	37%	29%	11%	2%	-
21	LI Chelsea	1%	11%	29%	35%	19%	4%	-
22	YU Sophie	-	5%	23%	38%	26%	8%	1%
23	ZHU Yunyao	1%	11%	39%	36%	12%	2%	-
24	ZHOU Joi	-	5%	20%	35%	28%	9%	1%
25	LEE Zoe E.	1%	10%	29%	36%	19%	4%	-
26	MA Isabelle	-	4%	24%	42%	24%	5%	-
27	HSIAO Ariya	1%	9%	28%	36%	21%	5%	-
28	TIKHONOVA Vasilisa	1%	10%	28%	35%	20%	5%	-
29	SAH Madeleine	2%	18%	37%	31%	11%	1%	-
30	ARYA Leela	16%	39%	32%	12%	2%	-	-
31	FANG Kelervia	2%	16%	36%	32%	12%	2%	-
32	LI Sophia	25%	42%	25%	7%	1%	-	-
33	TAN Shouyin	9%	30%	36%	19%	5%	-	-
34	DVOIRIS Maya	24%	42%	26%	7%	1%	-	-
35	HSU Rachel	10%	33%	36%	17%	4%	-	-
36	CHO Karis	5%	22%	37%	27%	9%	1%	-
37	JIN Jada Y	28%	45%	22%	5%	-	-	-
38	LI Audrey	12%	52%	30%	6%	-	-	-
39	JENA Aanvi	36%	43%	18%	3%	-	-	-
40	TAI Taphanie	53%	37%	9%	1%	-	-	-
41	GUTIERREZ Gia	29%	47%	20%	4%	-	-	-
42	MALIUANAG Aerin	69%	28%	3%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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