2nd Annual Fowler Open Win A Blade!!!

Div III Mixed Épée

Saturday, February 8, 2025 at 1:30 PM

Team Touché Fencing Center - San Diego, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	GONZÁLEZ Jesús	49%	38%	12%	2%	< 1%	-	-
2	PADGITT Tedd	-	-	-	-	3%	23%	74%
3	HERRON Jonathan	1%	9%	24%	33%	23%	8%	1%
3	ORELUP Austin	-	4%	16%	31%	31%	15%	3%
5	ADDLEMAN Joshua	-	-	3%	15%	34%	35%	13%
6	MANDEL Christian	-	-	-	8%	37%	50%	5%
7	POUND Michael	-	-	3%	14%	33%	36%	14%
8	DAVIS Julia	1%	7%	23%	34%	25%	10%	1%
9	WALSH Landon	2%	12%	29%	33%	18%	5%	-
10	OLIVAS Joseph	-	-	7%	35%	44%	14%	-
11	TIAN choyu	-	-	2%	12%	30%	37%	18%
12	SOLONOVICH Maksim	1%	12%	31%	34%	18%	4%	-
13	VON DER KRET Eliot	3%	16%	32%	31%	15%	3%	-
14	SKILLENS Davin	-	3%	13%	29%	33%	18%	3%
15	WALLIS Wyatt	1%	6%	19%	32%	28%	12%	2%
16	ROLDAN Ethan	21%	40%	28%	9%	1%	-	-
17	SMITH Mason	-	11%	63%	23%	3%	-	-
18	POUND David	-	-	1%	7%	25%	42%	25%
19	DE LAUNEY Merric	-	2%	13%	41%	36%	8%	-
20	PABLO Jesse	1%	7%	24%	35%	25%	8%	1%
21	HORN Evans	1%	9%	25%	34%	23%	7%	1%
22	ROBSON Sam	-	4%	17%	32%	30%	14%	2%
23	NUGENT Curtis	31%	41%	22%	6%	1%	-	-
24	WIESE Michael	-	4%	17%	32%	31%	14%	2%
24	FELDMAN Louis	4%	19%	34%	29%	12%	2%	-
24	YI David	3%	19%	34%	29%	12%	3%	-
27	MARIKOS Christina	32%	52%	14%	2%	-	-	-
28	AGUIRRE Karla	40%	45%	13%	2%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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