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NEUSFA 2019 Pomme De Terre Individual

E & Under Men's Saber

Sunday, June 16, 2019 at 11:00 AM

Brandeis University, Gosman Sports Center - Waltham, MA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	ALKEMPER Tristan H.	-	3%	14%	33%	36%	15%
2	LUO ZiRui	-	-	3%	19%	43%	35%
3	MAHONEY Colin M.	-	1%	5%	18%	34%	31%	11%
3	WANG Ziyao	1%	9%	26%	34%	22%	7%	1%
5	SPOSATO Andrew P.	1%	10%	28%	35%	21%	5%
6	MALDARI Frank	-	4%	22%	43%	26%	4%
7	SHERR Cameron E.	1%	8%	28%	38%	22%	4%
8	WEHLE Paul	-	6%	23%	38%	26%	6%
9	SMONGESKI Edward J.	-	3%	14%	29%	32%	18%	4%
10	HORAN Daniel J.	10%	31%	36%	19%	4%	-
11	SANTOS Thales	-	1%	5%	18%	33%	31%	12%
12	LO Alexander	5%	27%	38%	23%	7%	1%
14	REN Remy	5%	24%	41%	24%	6%	1%
15	CARTER Jackson	1%	6%	22%	36%	28%	8%
16	DONAHUE Liam R.	1%	11%	30%	34%	19%	5%	-
17	COLLINS William	1%	6%	20%	32%	27%	12%	2%
18	ANGKATAVANICH Owen	19%	41%	29%	9%	1%	< 1%
19	DWORTZ William	2%	13%	30%	34%	18%	3%
20	PUTNAM Kevin	-	1%	8%	26%	41%	24%
21	ZHUANG Rayken	3%	19%	36%	30%	10%	1%
22	MARGIL Matthew	-	3%	17%	41%	33%	7%
23	BELEV Nicholas	1%	7%	22%	34%	26%	9%	1%
24	DENG Zheyu	-	4%	16%	31%	31%	15%	3%
25	RENNER Henry	1%	11%	31%	36%	18%	3%
26	ELIN Adam E.	2%	14%	34%	34%	14%	2%
27	SOLIDAY Aidan	1%	11%	29%	35%	20%	4%
28	SHAO Peter	5%	25%	39%	24%	6%	-
29	BLACKBURN Henry	1%	8%	28%	38%	21%	3%
30	PIWOWAR Alex	3%	20%	38%	29%	9%	1%
31	COFFIN Carleton	-	4%	17%	35%	30%	11%	2%
32	FRUEHAUF Bradley	14%	37%	34%	13%	2%	-
33	TREON John	7%	26%	35%	23%	8%	1%	-
34	BURFEIND Samuel	2%	11%	27%	32%	20%	6%	1%
35	HAMILTON James	-	5%	20%	36%	30%	9%
36	LENZ Max	2%	15%	34%	33%	14%	2%
36	MCLAUGHLIN Gregory	8%	28%	37%	22%	5%	-
38	WEN Edward	11%	34%	36%	16%	3%	-	-
39	CHIOU Nathan	1%	9%	27%	35%	21%	5%	-
40	MARSHALL Jacob	16%	38%	31%	12%	2%	-
40	PENTLAND Craig	33%	46%	18%	3%	-	-
42	BROOK Joel	6%	24%	37%	26%	8%	1%
43	SAMUEL Andwele	11%	32%	35%	18%	4%	-
44	ALLAM Emile	9%	29%	35%	20%	6%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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