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Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	PALMA Nathan Anthony	-	-	-	4%	22%	45%	28%
2	ASHIDA Tomoaki	-	-	-	6%	28%	44%	21%
3	ALLEN Henry G.	-	-	1%	11%	44%	44%
3	BOYKO Miles	-	2%	13%	35%	38%	12%
5	CHAN Matthew	-	-	-	6%	32%	62%
6	UPTON Craig	-	-	-	7%	39%	54%
7	GNEUHS Sam	-	1%	10%	31%	38%	18%	2%
8	KABARITI Karim	-	4%	23%	44%	25%	3%
9	WOJCIECHOWSKI Matthew N.	-	-	-	1%	11%	38%	49%
10	POWELL Sean	-	12%	60%	25%	3%	-
11	DUNLAP Ian	4%	22%	37%	27%	9%	1%	-
12	COPELAND Nigel	-	2%	13%	39%	39%	7%
13	SAMALA Reese	5%	28%	48%	17%	2%	-
14	BLAKEMAN Michael J.	-	-	5%	27%	42%	22%	4%
15	ZHAO Zhiyong	-	1%	7%	30%	45%	18%
16	DAVIS Jennifer	4%	34%	45%	15%	2%	-
17	HREHOCIK Matthew	-	-	6%	32%	41%	18%	2%
18	DENMAN Matthew L.	-	1%	13%	47%	33%	6%
19	HAAS Zane	32%	42%	21%	5%	1%	-	-
20	PRIJATEL John R.	16%	46%	30%	7%	1%	-
21	SMITH Brandon T.	-	4%	26%	52%	16%	1%
22	BOWERS Gregory	8%	36%	43%	12%	1%	-	-
23	KEMNITZER John	-	3%	15%	33%	34%	14%	2%
24	MCDANIEL Laila	1%	8%	24%	33%	24%	8%	1%
25	CALESHU Bauer	31%	49%	18%	2%	-	-	-
26	PARANJAPE Ojasvi	16%	38%	32%	12%	2%	-
27	LEVY Ethan	41%	48%	10%	1%	-	-
28	GUSKA Jenn	31%	46%	20%	3%	-	-
28	RYAN Nash	28%	45%	22%	4%	-	-
28	RODRIGUEZ Jocelyn	36%	51%	12%	1%	-	-
31	KOMEYA Ohna	27%	47%	23%	3%	-	-	-
31	LYNCH Stephen	2%	16%	40%	34%	8%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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