Neil Lazar RYC/RJCC

Cadet Women's Saber

Saturday, November 16, 2019 at 4:00 PM

New Haven, CT - New Haven, CT, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	SHOMAN Jenna	-	-	-	2%	21%	77%
2	OWENS Celine A.	-	4%	21%	41%	28%	6%
3	NG Sarah W.	2%	14%	30%	32%	17%	5%	-
3	DEPEW Charlotte R.	-	1%	10%	29%	40%	19%
5	NEWELL Alexia C.	-	-	1%	8%	25%	41%	25%
6	XIKES Katherine E.	-	5%	23%	41%	25%	5%
7	SHIH Christina	1%	10%	29%	37%	19%	4%
8	CHEN Celina Z.	4%	19%	34%	28%	12%	2%	-
9	KRYLOVA Valery	-	3%	18%	37%	32%	10%
10	MUNGOVAN Cecilia C.	4%	19%	37%	29%	10%	1%
11	SLOBODSKY Sasha L.	-	1%	9%	29%	41%	19%
12	JIN Olivia P.	-	2%	13%	33%	37%	15%
13	LIGH Erenei J.	-	3%	16%	36%	34%	11%
14	HESSLER Hope L.	1%	6%	26%	42%	23%	2%
15	YU Melinda	-	1%	10%	31%	40%	18%
16	BILILIES Sophia	1%	9%	26%	34%	22%	7%	1%
17	MAGLIATO Julia	6%	25%	37%	24%	7%	1%
18	SU Emma	-	2%	11%	31%	39%	17%
19	HORAN Alexa	15%	44%	31%	9%	1%	-
20	SADOVA Olga	-	5%	20%	37%	30%	8%
20	NGUYEN Ella	20%	40%	29%	9%	1%	-
22	LEE Sophia	1%	7%	27%	41%	23%	2%
23	YUAN Greta	-	1%	7%	21%	35%	28%	8%
24	ILYIN Anna	4%	22%	37%	27%	9%	1%
25	OBRADOVIC Ana	-	2%	15%	35%	35%	13%
26	HUANG Caroline	2%	13%	33%	35%	15%	2%
27	DONG Zihan	22%	43%	28%	7%	1%	-
28	JIANG Paula	1%	8%	24%	34%	24%	8%	1%
29	SULLIVAN Caroline	5%	25%	40%	25%	6%	-
30	LU Elaine	-	1%	9%	29%	40%	20%
31	BILLETER Mary	-	5%	23%	40%	26%	5%
32	HE Lizbeth	< 1%	3%	16%	35%	34%	12%
33	YAN Ava	14%	41%	33%	11%	2%	-
34	WHALEN Paige C.	1%	9%	29%	37%	20%	4%
35	LIGH Karis	23%	41%	27%	8%	1%	-
36	NAYAK Anika	9%	32%	37%	18%	4%	-
37	SAHNI Sophia	19%	41%	30%	9%	1%	-
38	CHO Adella	33%	42%	20%	4%	-	-
39	SULLIVAN Kate	6%	27%	38%	23%	6%	1%
40	ZIMMERMAN Saskia	40%	42%	15%	2%	-	-
41	JOHNSTON Lily	17%	40%	31%	11%	2%	-
42	CHU Laura	22%	39%	27%	10%	2%	-	-
43	ZHIZHIN Jeanette	41%	42%	15%	3%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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