8th Annual Sword in the Stone RYC and RJC

Y-12 Women's Saber

Friday, February 21, 2025 at 10:00 AM

Jump Beyond Sports - Torrance, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	JIANG Evelyn	-	-	-	-	2%	22%	76%
2	BABOLDASHTIAN Rosegol	-	-	3%	23%	54%	21%
3	CHEN Cindy	-	2%	10%	29%	40%	19%
3	CAO Kim	-	1%	5%	21%	39%	28%	6%
5	KIM Saeren	-	-	-	1%	10%	38%	50%
6	HWANG Sophie	-	-	-	6%	38%	56%
7	PARK Chloe	-	2%	13%	32%	37%	15%
8	CHANG Kylie	-	1%	7%	25%	39%	24%	4%
9	CHENG Anna	-	-	2%	14%	43%	41%
10	CHENG Zijuan "Grace"	-	1%	6%	27%	46%	20%
11	WANG April	1%	10%	27%	36%	21%	4%	-
12	NGUYEN Summer	-	-	3%	16%	38%	37%	5%
13	YU Sydney	10%	30%	36%	19%	5%	-	-
14	LIU Jessica	4%	20%	38%	29%	8%	1%
15	DENG Oscar	9%	32%	37%	18%	3%	-
16	WANG Makayla	1%	9%	29%	37%	20%	4%	-
17	VIGNEUX Nolwenn	1%	8%	31%	45%	15%	1%
18	SHI Maxine	2%	13%	31%	34%	17%	3%
19	TAN Angela	9%	31%	37%	19%	4%	-	-
20	LI Cici	2%	14%	31%	33%	17%	3%	-
21	XU Ella	15%	36%	33%	13%	3%	-
22	TABANCAY Ava	5%	23%	37%	26%	8%	1%
23	GUERVILLE Angelique	12%	34%	34%	16%	3%	-
24	LIU Kaylee	10%	36%	40%	13%	1%	-
25	LIU Anya	9%	31%	38%	18%	3%	-
26	WU Melody	21%	41%	29%	8%	1%	-
27	SEELMAN Alexa	13%	41%	35%	9%	1%	-
27	SHIH Cayla	36%	44%	18%	2%	-	-
29	MENDOZA SAB	5%	24%	38%	25%	7%	1%	-
30	ZHANG Cecilia	13%	35%	34%	15%	3%	-	-
31	FANG Lauren	32%	43%	21%	4%	-	-	-
32	LIANG Madelyn	4%	20%	35%	29%	10%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.