Mission RYC

Y-14 Women's Foil

Saturday, February 22, 2025 at 12:30 PM

Mission Fencing Center - Rocky Point, NY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	ZELDIN Nadia	-	-	-	-	3%	23%	74%
2	ORRINGER Lottie	-	-	-	3%	17%	42%	38%
3	SIROTA Francis	-	-	-	-	4%	27%	69%
3	CAO Amelie	-	-	-	4%	19%	43%	33%
5	SHIN Elizabeth	-	-	4%	16%	35%	34%	11%
6	LI Christina	-	1%	7%	24%	40%	26%	3%
7	LIN Yunong	-	-	1%	6%	27%	48%	19%
8	CHO Olivia	-	-	3%	15%	34%	36%	12%
9	KRAHE Annika	-	-	-	1%	9%	40%	50%
10	REZA Fukaina	-	1%	8%	25%	37%	24%	5%
11	MURPHY Genevieve	-	6%	22%	36%	26%	8%	1%
12	XU-FERGUSON Victoria	-	4%	19%	36%	30%	10%	1%
13	DOUGLAS Addison	-	6%	22%	35%	27%	9%	1%
14	PEVZNER Sophia	-	4%	18%	36%	32%	9%	1%
15	LI Savannah	-	-	1%	6%	22%	42%	29%
16	OTTAVIANO Maris	10%	31%	35%	19%	5%	-	-
17	STEWART Isla	25%	41%	25%	8%	1%	-	-
18	WAN Celine	-	4%	18%	34%	31%	11%	1%
19	SUN Erin	8%	29%	37%	21%	5%	-	-
20	YOUM Amelia	2%	12%	32%	35%	17%	3%	-
21	SHANG Arianna	1%	8%	26%	36%	23%	6%	1%
22	MACKINTOSH Quinn	-	4%	18%	34%	31%	12%	1%
23	DONG Katelyn	40%	41%	16%	3%	-	-	-
24	HUSSIAN Annabelle	-	1%	7%	24%	38%	25%	5%
25	COLE Sofia	2%	13%	30%	33%	18%	4%	-
26	WU Charlotte	2%	14%	33%	34%	15%	2%	-
27	FEDER Acadia	-	3%	14%	32%	34%	15%	1%
28	DINAR Julia	1%	10%	28%	34%	20%	5%	-
29	COUAILLIER Lou	1%	7%	25%	37%	24%	6%	-
30	ZHU Alivia	1%	9%	27%	35%	22%	6%	1%
31	CHOI Cara	2%	12%	30%	34%	18%	4%	-
32	VO Evelyn	9%	30%	36%	20%	5%	1%	-
33	CHAN Kaitlyn	13%	35%	35%	15%	3%	-	-
34	GOODMAN Carden	5%	27%	38%	23%	7%	1%	-
35	GENG Emma	5%	21%	35%	27%	11%	2%	-
36	HEMPHILL Mia	7%	28%	37%	21%	6%	1%	-
37	LIU Bella	12%	34%	34%	16%	4%	-	-
38	FAN Melody	11%	35%	35%	16%	3%	-	-
39	HUDSON Sophie	51%	37%	10%	1%	-	-	-
40	JUNCADELLA Lucy	3%	19%	36%	30%	11%	2%	-
41	GOMEZ Sofia	13%	35%	34%	14%	3%	-	-
42	LENZ Phoebe	35%	42%	18%	4%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.