W&M Conomikes-Gutenberg Memorial Open

Senior Mixed Saber

Saturday, February 22, 2025 at 4:00 PM

William & Mary Adair Gym - Williamsburg, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	SU Landon	-	-	-	-	1%	20%	78%
2	HARE John R.	-	-	-	-	3%	35%	62%
3	SOUDERS Peter F.	-	-	-	-	-	8%	92%
3	FORT David	-	-	-	3%	18%	43%	36%
5	DECK Tyson	-	-	4%	24%	43%	26%	4%
5	SALMAN Hamzah	-	4%	16%	32%	31%	14%	2%
7	LIN Felix	-	-	1%	8%	32%	46%	13%
8	FAN Alexandria	11%	31%	33%	18%	6%	1%	-
9	BRIDGEMAN Andrew T.	-	-	1%	6%	28%	46%	18%
10	JACKSON Evan	-	-	-	6%	35%	51%	7%
11	FENG Brendan	-	-	8%	38%	48%	6%	-
12	RAUSCHER Ryan	-	-	-	3%	20%	48%	29%
13	SEMP Brannon A.	-	1%	4%	16%	32%	33%	14%
14	PARCELL Colby	-	5%	23%	42%	26%	4%	-
15	LIAO Siwen	-	-	1%	5%	19%	41%	34%
16	BENE Andrew	1%	18%	40%	31%	9%	1%	-
17	LE Tan	-	-	1%	13%	45%	34%	6%
18	PATRICK Timothy M.	-	-	-	-	10%	63%	27%
19	LAUDO Joseph	-	-	5%	28%	46%	19%	1%
20	BENE Paul	13%	37%	35%	13%	2%	-	-
21	WALKER Terra	-	2%	14%	37%	36%	10%	1%
22	XIE Eric	-	3%	17%	36%	33%	10%	1%
23	LYON Drew	-	-	2%	13%	40%	45%	-
24	LIAO Sirui	2%	15%	34%	33%	13%	2%	-
25	SUTHERLAND Jr. Richard L.	-	2%	12%	32%	37%	15%	2%
26	OTT William	5%	26%	42%	24%	3%	-	-
27	BRAMLETT Myer	-	12%	54%	30%	4%	-	-
28	HEANEY Sam	2%	12%	29%	33%	19%	5%	1%
29	FEIRA Justin	-	5%	25%	48%	19%	2%	-
30	CASSIDY Connor J.	-	3%	13%	29%	33%	17%	3%
31	ALLEN Asa	4%	21%	37%	28%	9%	1%	-
32	SU Ji	2%	12%	30%	33%	18%	5%	-
33	HOWERTON Beckett	10%	33%	37%	17%	3%	-	-
34	GOLART Dylan	1%	11%	33%	39%	15%	1%	-
35	FANG Darcy	1%	12%	35%	36%	14%	2%	-
36	ZHOU Deborah	18%	44%	29%	8%	1%	-	-
37	SILK Ryan	4%	37%	41%	16%	2%	-	-
38	LEE Angela	5%	33%	42%	18%	2%	-	-
39	WANG Ziyao	35%	46%	17%	3%	-	-	-
40	SMITH Connor	1%	7%	25%	37%	24%	5%	-
41	CHON-BAKER Hayden	27%	42%	24%	6%	1%	-	-
42	BORGESON Abigail	37%	43%	17%	3%	-	-	-
43	TERRELL Mason	15%	44%	32%	8%	1%	-	-
44	WATTS Liam	3%	19%	37%	29%	10%	2%	-
45	HUANG Anni	54%	36%	8%	1%	-	-	-
46	KINARD Alexander	2%	17%	39%	32%	9%	1%	-
47	KEESEE Devon	54%	37%	8%	1%	-	-	-
47	TUSING Isabel	15%	67%	17%	1%	-	-	-
47	EVELYN Wyatt	3%	17%	32%	30%	14%	3%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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