Boston Fencing Club RYC

Y-14 Men's Saber

Sunday, March 2, 2025 at 3:30 PM

Boston Fencing Club - Boston, MA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	CAI Jeff	-	-	3%	18%	43%	36%
2	KARAVAS Nicholas	-	2%	12%	33%	39%	14%
3	LIU Eric	-	-	2%	13%	40%	45%
3	SASSI Ilyas	-	-	1%	13%	43%	43%
5	ZWAKA Jonas	-	-	1%	13%	44%	42%
6	CRAWFORD William	1%	9%	27%	35%	22%	5%
7	SHAPIRO Simon	-	-	5%	26%	47%	21%
8	CHAVAN Aditya	7%	28%	39%	22%	4%
9	LEVY Jack	-	1%	7%	30%	46%	16%
10	HOWARTH Hayes	-	3%	18%	40%	32%	7%
11	TAYCHER Aaron	-	5%	19%	36%	30%	10%
12	KOREN George	1%	6%	25%	42%	26%
13	KHANNA Adamantis	-	-	-	4%	26%	70%
14	LEE Damian	1%	10%	30%	38%	19%	3%
15	ZHIVICH Theo	14%	39%	34%	12%	2%	-
16	MAKLIN David	1%	10%	36%	39%	13%	1%
17	KUMAR Avinash	-	6%	25%	42%	25%	3%
18	WANG Edward	-	-	1%	11%	40%	47%
19	ZALETAEV Jacob	-	3%	17%	40%	33%	7%
20	GRIGORYAN Sevak	5%	23%	39%	27%	6%
21	KOREN David	4%	20%	36%	28%	11%	2%
22	CHEN Brian	2%	14%	34%	34%	14%	2%
23	TITOV Zachary	-	9%	31%	40%	18%	1%
24	PEACE Sam	1%	12%	38%	37%	11%	1%
25	GAO Francis	4%	30%	44%	19%	3%	-
26	BROOKS Drake	1%	8%	25%	36%	24%	6%
27	MENZIES Liam	15%	38%	33%	12%	2%	-
28	WANG Muzhou	-	3%	19%	44%	28%	5%
29	VIDREVICH David	2%	25%	42%	25%	6%	-
30	SOCHNIKOV Jacob	18%	49%	27%	5%	-	-
31	BURENKOV Matthew	1%	17%	39%	33%	10%	1%
32	RIVERATAN Darshan	7%	28%	38%	21%	5%	-
33	LEIGH Brayden	-	5%	21%	38%	29%	6%
34	MALEK Zak	1%	9%	27%	36%	22%	5%
35	EARLEY Jack	3%	17%	36%	31%	11%	1%
36	GAYTAN Antonio	21%	40%	28%	9%	1%	-
37	CHIN Adrian	3%	21%	40%	29%	7%
38	DAVIDSON Graham	31%	43%	21%	4%	-
39	WANG William	14%	38%	33%	13%	2%	-
40	HUANG KIMBALL	31%	44%	20%	4%	-	-
41	CAI Lin Rui	76%	21%	2%	-	-	-
42	GARCIA-ALBEA Oscar	57%	36%	7%	-	-	-
43	SEARS Max	50%	40%	9%	1%	-	-
44	ABELTSAI Hauke	10%	42%	37%	10%	1%	-
44	HORJUS Daniel	8%	32%	40%	18%	3%	-
44	GARCIA-ALBEA Diego	20%	41%	29%	9%	1%	-
47	GONZALEZ-CARTER Coda	35%	41%	19%	4%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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