SAS D & Under Foil

Div III Mixed Foil

Friday, March 7, 2025 at 7:30 PM

Salle Auriol Seattle - Seattle, WA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	TOYOFUKU Ethan	-	1%	6%	23%	42%	28%
2	WEI-NAVARRO Augustus	3%	22%	40%	27%	8%	1%
3	LU Chang	1%	9%	25%	33%	23%	8%	1%
3	HARRIS Julien	-	1%	9%	29%	40%	20%
5	CHRISTIAN Jonathan	-	-	-	5%	39%	44%	12%
6	BEAVER Hannah	-	2%	28%	53%	17%
7	HOLCOMB Alexander	-	1%	6%	21%	36%	29%	8%
8	FECAROTTA Ryan	-	1%	8%	23%	34%	26%	8%
9	WU Elynna	-	1%	8%	24%	36%	25%	6%
10	HAN Ashley	-	1%	20%	54%	25%
11	HAN Mia	7%	26%	36%	23%	7%	1%
12	CLEMENTE Aragorn	1%	10%	27%	33%	21%	6%	1%
13	NICHOLSON John	10%	32%	36%	18%	4%	-	-
14	ISLAM Asif	20%	44%	28%	7%	1%	-
15	BERKE Daniel (Dan) L.	-	2%	13%	32%	37%	15%
16	SHERWOOD Christopher T.	7%	27%	37%	22%	6%	1%
17	LIPPMAN Soyeon	-	-	1%	8%	25%	40%	26%
18	BACON Maxwell	2%	13%	32%	34%	16%	3%
19	HOLCOMB Michael	66%	30%	4%	-	-
20	OKASAKI Connie	-	3%	15%	32%	32%	15%	3%
21	CANNON Ezra Xavier	4%	22%	37%	27%	9%	1%
23	LIPPAI Sarah	1%	7%	24%	38%	25%	5%
24	CHAN Xavier	6%	25%	37%	24%	7%	1%	-
25	ARUN Abi	1%	12%	39%	38%	10%
26	ROBLES Michael	27%	42%	24%	6%	1%	-
27	GRANT Julie	1%	23%	40%	27%	8%	1%	-
27	YU Max	2%	13%	31%	35%	16%	3%	-
29	DIBBLE Brady	1%	9%	30%	38%	19%	3%
30	CHEN Cameron	11%	50%	39%	-	-
31	AMMAR Sam	22%	41%	28%	9%	1%	-	-
33	ZHANG Shirely	17%	40%	32%	10%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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