15th Annual Yellow Jacket Open

Div III Mixed Saber

Saturday, March 8, 2025 at 4:30 PM

Georgia Tech Campus Recreation Center: Atlanta, GA - Atlanta, GA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	BIALIK Noah	-	1%	15%	42%	35%	7%
2	VAUGHN Jason	-	-	1%	9%	38%	52%
3	WOMACK Theodore	-	8%	42%	38%	11%	1%
3	LEE Andrew	-	2%	13%	33%	37%	15%
5	LORENZINI Samuel	-	-	5%	22%	37%	28%	7%
6	RAKAJ Jozef	-	-	2%	13%	35%	39%	11%
7	EDWARDS Farren	-	2%	11%	30%	39%	18%
8	JAYARAM Archita	-	-	4%	22%	44%	30%
9	HAYES David	-	-	2%	12%	31%	37%	17%
10	GONZALEZ Jerry	-	1%	15%	42%	35%	7%
11	SWETT Isaac B.	-	3%	18%	39%	32%	8%
12	GORDON Ezekiel	5%	28%	42%	21%	4%	-
13	MARTIN Evangeline	1%	11%	30%	37%	18%	2%
14	MACKEY Ibrahim	8%	30%	37%	20%	5%	-
15	FARAHMAND Shaya	-	9%	45%	34%	10%	1%	-
16	VU Mark	2%	12%	31%	35%	17%	3%
17	BOUNDS Andrew	-	5%	22%	37%	27%	8%	1%
18	CALLAHAN Arrow	-	1%	10%	32%	40%	16%
19	LINDSAY Mirah	9%	28%	35%	21%	7%	1%	-
20	RODRIGUEZ Jason	1%	6%	21%	33%	26%	10%	2%
21	OH Seonghun	1%	8%	30%	37%	19%	4%	-
22	HUGHEY Emma	10%	32%	36%	17%	4%	-	-
23	RIETZ Cairan	8%	35%	38%	16%	3%	-
24	LINDSAY Devin	-	2%	11%	31%	39%	17%
25	SHAGHAGHI Sahand	7%	25%	36%	24%	7%	1%
26	SULLIVAN Axyl	1%	12%	33%	35%	16%	3%
27	BARNES Rachel	6%	34%	40%	17%	3%	-
28	HUGHES Eric	-	3%	15%	32%	32%	15%	3%
29	DAILEY John	-	1%	4%	16%	32%	34%	14%
30	WATKINS James	20%	40%	29%	10%	1%	-
31	LIU Kyle	-	3%	16%	38%	33%	9%
32	TAOUIL Sarrah	27%	47%	22%	4%	-	-	-
33	MOON Joseph	44%	46%	10%	1%	-	-
34	HUGHEY Titus	37%	54%	8%	-	-	-
35	JONES Declan	34%	43%	19%	4%	-	-
36	WILCOX Hayden	< 1%	1%	7%	24%	37%	25%	6%
37	RANDALL Kiara	41%	43%	15%	2%	-	-
38	CUMMINGS Aaron	34%	47%	17%	3%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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