SAS D & Under Epee

Div III Mixed Épée

Friday, March 14, 2025 at 7:30 PM

Salle Auriol Seattle - Seattle, WA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	LEWIS Michael	1%	5%	18%	31%	29%	14%	3%
2	NETTLETON Lewis	-	1%	6%	21%	35%	28%	8%
3	CHAKRABORTY Zorian	-	2%	13%	33%	36%	15%	1%
3	XUE Jake	1%	9%	27%	37%	23%	5%
5	WITECKI Jack	-	-	2%	10%	28%	39%	21%
6	BRODIE Ian T.	-	-	-	-	2%	26%	72%
7	MONTGOMERY Elliot	1%	9%	24%	32%	24%	9%	1%
8	SHIRAEV Dmitry	2%	12%	30%	34%	18%	4%
9	LIU Fengqi	-	3%	12%	27%	33%	20%	5%
10	KANIA Robert	3%	14%	29%	31%	18%	5%	1%
11	SCOTT Gavin	-	2%	10%	28%	39%	21%
12	SILKEY Jason	2%	12%	30%	35%	18%	3%
13	GE Ray	8%	30%	37%	20%	5%	-	-
14	GILMORE Nicholas	7%	26%	36%	23%	7%	1%
15	CROPLEY Theodore	-	4%	15%	29%	31%	17%	4%
16	DZIO Ethan	-	2%	13%	32%	34%	16%	2%
17	BACON Corban	1%	10%	31%	37%	17%	3%	-
18	SHIFF Jackson	1%	11%	30%	36%	18%	4%	-
19	LOHNES Shane	-	3%	15%	34%	34%	13%	-
20	BOYER Victor	1%	7%	21%	32%	26%	11%	2%
21	FARRER Cheryl	9%	28%	34%	21%	7%	1%	-
22	JOHNSON Kingsley	24%	42%	26%	7%	1%	-	-
23	ZHAO Michael	-	5%	20%	35%	28%	10%	1%
24	HUFF Ava	12%	33%	35%	16%	4%	-	-
24	GORDILLO Roberto Santiago	8%	30%	37%	20%	5%	-	-
26	CHAPMAN Jack	14%	33%	32%	16%	4%	1%	-
27	CLIFTON Kenneth	26%	42%	25%	7%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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