COZMX RYC/RCC

Y-14 Men's Saber

Saturday, March 15, 2025 at 10:00 AM

San Joaquin County Fairgrounds - Stockton, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	CRICOL Damian	-	1%	6%	29%	48%	17%
2	CHAN Henry	-	-	-	3%	25%	72%
3	IYER Neil	-	-	2%	13%	41%	45%
3	KANG Matthew	-	-	-	-	3%	24%	73%
5	VO Blake	-	2%	14%	35%	38%	11%
6	KANG Jeremy	-	-	4%	20%	43%	31%
7	MASAKI Alex	2%	12%	31%	36%	18%	2%
8	VAN ROY Ray	-	2%	13%	37%	41%	7%
9	TANG Morgan	-	-	-	6%	30%	64%
10	IRVINE Patrick	3%	20%	41%	29%	7%	1%
11	ROBUCHON Aleksandr	-	-	1%	12%	41%	45%
12	LUC Linkin	-	-	2%	14%	41%	43%
13	ANUMULA Aryan	-	2%	13%	33%	38%	14%
14	AIKMAN Kai	-	4%	21%	40%	28%	6%
15	YOUNG Navin	3%	18%	36%	31%	11%	1%
16	LEE Kyle Sung Ju	14%	37%	34%	13%	2%	-
17	ORLINO Samuel	4%	23%	40%	26%	6%	-
18	DECHEV Vlad	1%	6%	21%	35%	28%	9%	1%
19	FISCHER Noel	-	3%	13%	31%	35%	17%	1%
20	HO Alden	3%	16%	36%	32%	12%	1%
21	HERRERA Stefano	3%	20%	39%	30%	7%	-
22	HAMDAN Zachery	6%	33%	40%	18%	3%	-
23	VENKATRAMAN Sushil	2%	16%	37%	32%	12%	1%
24	YANG Jake	6%	25%	37%	24%	6%	-
25	NGUYEN Drake	14%	35%	34%	15%	3%	-
26	SEDOSHKIN Timur	21%	40%	28%	9%	1%	-
27	MOORE Greyson	17%	43%	31%	9%	1%	-
28	GOTTSCHALK Theodore	12%	35%	35%	15%	3%	-
29	WESTMORELAND-BROWN Cole	7%	28%	37%	22%	5%	-
30	ELSAYED Yahia	10%	31%	35%	19%	5%	1%	-
31	YAYLI Alp	19%	38%	29%	11%	2%	-	-
32	FERRING Theo	8%	31%	38%	19%	4%	-
33	LUO Gavin	-	5%	24%	41%	26%	5%
34	WANG James	3%	16%	35%	33%	12%	1%
35	LIANG Preston	2%	11%	29%	34%	20%	5%	-
36	XIE Andrew	8%	28%	37%	21%	5%	-
37	HRISTOV Nickolas	1%	12%	35%	38%	14%	1%
38	LI Sky	61%	33%	6%	-	-	-
39	TAN Daniel	8%	27%	37%	22%	6%	-
40	XU Ethan	10%	34%	37%	17%	3%	-
41	DUFF Michael	1%	11%	29%	35%	19%	4%	-
42	BELHE Hridhaan	35%	44%	18%	3%	-	-
43	LITTLE Mica	31%	44%	21%	4%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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