GRAFA RYC\RJCC\ROC - Third Coast Cup 2025

Y-12 Men's Foil

Saturday, March 15, 2025 at 12:00 PM

MSA Sports Spot - Grand Rapids, MI, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	ZHAO Jason	-	1%	5%	21%	40%	29%	4%
2	DIFRANK Avery	-	-	1%	9%	44%	46%
3	WENGER Rowan	-	2%	13%	33%	37%	15%
3	ZHENG Lerui	-	-	-	3%	16%	40%	40%
5	MADDES Gage	-	-	4%	18%	42%	36%
6	WANG Freyr	-	4%	18%	38%	31%	9%
7	WILLIAMS Thomas	4%	18%	34%	30%	12%	2%	-
8	XUE Lucas	6%	25%	39%	25%	6%	-
9	JIAO Daniel	-	-	2%	15%	53%	31%
10	DENG Albert	2%	14%	32%	34%	15%	2%
11	DHALIWAL Zorawar Singh	-	4%	17%	32%	31%	14%	2%
12	YU Ryan	12%	34%	36%	16%	2%	< 1%
13	MORALES Tycho	-	2%	11%	28%	35%	20%	4%
14	MCCOOL Henry	-	1%	5%	18%	35%	31%	10%
15	LIU Bradley	-	2%	11%	32%	39%	17%
16	PAYNE Lynas	1%	7%	24%	37%	25%	6%
17	HUYCK Liam	-	6%	27%	42%	23%	2%
18	PALMERKLEIN Justin	3%	16%	31%	30%	15%	4%	-
19	TAGORE Ayansh	11%	33%	36%	17%	3%	-
19	COLUCCI Sebastian	-	2%	18%	44%	31%	4%
21	KRESS Elias	4%	23%	41%	27%	5%	-
22	HYUN Francis	5%	24%	37%	26%	8%	1%
23	GARCIA Fabricio	2%	15%	32%	32%	15%	3%	-
24	RITTER Nathan D.	27%	43%	23%	6%	1%	-
25	SALINAS Oliver	2%	13%	31%	34%	17%	3%
26	LIN Abraham	2%	11%	29%	36%	20%	3%
27	LUND Jonah	24%	44%	26%	6%	-	-
28	ZHANG Austin	4%	20%	34%	28%	11%	2%	-
29	YIN Andrew	2%	12%	28%	32%	20%	6%	1%
30	JAGANNATHAN Avi	44%	41%	14%	2%	-	-
31	MARVEL Elliot	4%	22%	42%	27%	4%	-
32	SUSSMAN Gabriel	7%	25%	34%	24%	9%	1%	-
33	DURAI Dheeraj	12%	34%	34%	15%	3%	-
34	FISHER Charlie	-	7%	31%	39%	20%	3%
35	MATIYASH Andrew	22%	43%	28%	7%	-	-
36	MEI Edan	15%	38%	33%	12%	2%	-
37	JUSTICE Tim	-	2%	15%	35%	35%	12%
38	YUAN Derek	23%	40%	27%	8%	1%	-	-
39	FISHER Graham	< 1%	5%	22%	37%	27%	7%
40	KLINE Benjamin	< 1%	6%	23%	37%	27%	7%
40	HARRIS Locke	20%	43%	30%	7%	-	-
40	MILLER Hayden	< 1%	6%	31%	45%	16%	2%
43	CORDERO Lucas	< 1%	9%	31%	37%	19%	4%	-
44	JUSTICE Cary	< 1%	6%	27%	38%	23%	6%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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