COZMX RYC/RCC

Y-12 Men's Épée

Sunday, March 16, 2025 at 8:00 AM

San Joaquin County Fairgrounds - Stockton, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	WONG Aaron	-	-	2%	15%	41%	42%
2	LIU Xuyao	-	1%	6%	21%	36%	29%	8%
3	DING Max	-	2%	11%	30%	39%	18%
3	LIU Daniel	-	4%	19%	36%	31%	10%
5	MANA Sameer	-	1%	6%	27%	44%	23%
6	YAO Tristan	-	-	1%	5%	22%	42%	31%
7	LIN Daniel	1%	8%	27%	37%	22%	5%
8	CHIN NAKAZONO Justin	1%	6%	24%	38%	25%	6%
9	YU Brandon	-	4%	18%	35%	32%	11%
10	SCHIPPER Johann	-	2%	19%	44%	32%	4%
11	SAMOYLOV Daniel	2%	16%	36%	33%	12%	2%
12	LUO Alvin Y.	2%	14%	38%	36%	10%	-
13	JU Shang	1%	6%	23%	35%	26%	8%	1%
14	XU Isaac	-	5%	19%	34%	29%	11%	1%
15	KO Ian	1%	7%	24%	35%	25%	8%	1%
16	YU Haoyun	1%	11%	31%	36%	18%	3%
17	LEE Joshua	1%	10%	34%	37%	16%	2%
18	ABRAHAM Aaron	15%	38%	32%	12%	2%	-
19	LI NATHAN	32%	43%	20%	4%	-	-
20	YE Andrew	13%	38%	36%	12%	1%	-
21	LO Stefan	16%	41%	31%	10%	2%	-
22	AULAKH Eshaan	14%	41%	33%	10%	1%	-
23	LOUIE Aaron	29%	42%	23%	6%	1%	-
24	LIN Logan	-	3%	16%	36%	33%	11%
25	LEUNG Joon	1%	7%	24%	37%	25%	7%
26	GIRIRAJ Aditya	-	1%	10%	38%	46%	6%
27	KIM Christian	36%	44%	17%	3%	-	-
28	SZETO Zachary	25%	42%	25%	7%	1%	-	-
29	NOORLAAS TJ	< 1%	5%	23%	41%	27%	4%
30	JUNG Brandon	25%	42%	25%	7%	1%	-
31	WANG Franklin	17%	40%	30%	11%	2%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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