GRAFA RYC\RJCC\ROC - Third Coast Cup 2025

Y-12 Women's Foil

Sunday, March 16, 2025 at 12:00 PM

MSA Sports Spot - Grand Rapids, MI, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	HUANG Natalie	-	-	-	2%	13%	41%	44%
2	BOIKE Lucille	-	-	-	1%	8%	35%	56%
3	KNAPP Isabella	-	-	-	-	4%	29%	66%
3	YANG Hanli	-	1%	9%	42%	48%
5	RIVERA Leahy	-	-	4%	26%	58%	11%
6	SUN Nicole	-	-	5%	22%	40%	28%	4%
7	SALMI-BYDALEK Ada	-	-	4%	18%	38%	32%	8%
8	YIN Emily	2%	13%	30%	33%	17%	4%	-
9	FAROOQI Eliora	9%	29%	35%	21%	6%	1%	-
10	KIM Yuna	-	1%	8%	28%	39%	21%	3%
11	LIU Sophia	-	2%	10%	26%	36%	22%	4%
12	DHALIWAL Seerat	-	4%	19%	38%	32%	6%
13	GONZALEZ Lauren	-	6%	27%	39%	22%	5%	-
14	EDGAR Koko	10%	34%	36%	16%	3%	-	-
15	KIM Gia	1%	6%	20%	34%	28%	10%	1%
16	CHAVEZ Beatrix	9%	28%	35%	21%	6%	1%	-
17	BELL Blake	4%	22%	38%	28%	8%	1%
18	IANNI Izzy	-	4%	23%	50%	22%
19	WANG Helen Hoi Lam	-	5%	21%	37%	27%	8%	1%
20	LALONDE Beatrice	-	3%	22%	40%	27%	7%	-
21	KASHUBA Mila	-	1%	10%	32%	39%	17%	2%
22	VELEZ Sofia	34%	46%	18%	2%	-
23	LIN Athena	11%	34%	37%	15%	3%	-
24	HUANG Rosalyn	19%	39%	30%	10%	1%	-
25	FANG Savannah	23%	47%	25%	4%	-
26	REDEMANN Reagan	5%	22%	35%	27%	10%	2%	-
27	JIMÉNEZ PELAY Claudia	31%	43%	21%	4%	-	-	-
28	ZMUDA Jordan	22%	53%	22%	4%	-	-	-
29	XU Scarlett	7%	32%	44%	15%	1%
30	VIVEROS Greta	1%	6%	25%	40%	24%	4%
31	KAGAN Natalie	6%	28%	39%	21%	5%	-	-
31	DORNBOS Nevaeh	53%	39%	7%	1%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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