NYFA Youth Cup #5

Y-14 Mixed Épée

Sunday, March 16, 2025 at 4:30 PM

NYFA Brooklyn - Brooklyn, NY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	MIDYANY Evan	-	-	-	3%	23%	74%
2	VYSOTSKIY Evan	-	-	-	-	3%	26%	70%
3	SHCHUR Grayson	-	-	4%	17%	38%	34%	7%
3	WU Michelle	-	-	3%	14%	32%	36%	15%
5	MIDYANY Ryan	-	1%	8%	27%	41%	23%
6	KIM Henry	-	-	-	2%	12%	39%	47%
7	KHERSONSKY Robert	-	4%	20%	38%	29%	8%	1%
8	GAO Ryan	7%	28%	39%	22%	5%	-
9	WANG Marcus	-	4%	17%	33%	32%	13%	1%
10	THOMAS Andrew	1%	10%	31%	38%	18%	1%
11	WU Matthew	-	3%	18%	37%	31%	10%	1%
12	TSIEN Richard	-	-	3%	15%	34%	35%	13%
13	JEPP Michael	21%	42%	28%	8%	1%	-
14	YAMAGUCHI Yuzuki	-	-	1%	9%	36%	54%
15	KATS Brandon	-	5%	23%	42%	26%	4%
16	FRIZZELL Kai	5%	25%	38%	25%	7%	1%
17	DATSON David	2%	17%	36%	32%	11%	1%
18	CHEN Madeline	-	5%	21%	35%	28%	10%	1%
19	LAI Jayden	-	3%	15%	36%	34%	12%	1%
20	MASKIN Mikhail	-	2%	12%	31%	35%	17%	3%
21	MOKRETSOV Leah	3%	15%	31%	31%	15%	3%	-
22	TANG Colin	2%	15%	35%	33%	13%	2%
23	BOBORIS Dimitrios	42%	41%	14%	2%	-	-
24	PETROFF Eva	-	6%	24%	41%	26%	3%
25	CHIANG William	1%	11%	32%	38%	17%	1%
26	DUNCAN John	-	2%	15%	38%	36%	9%
27	CHO Adrian	3%	22%	39%	27%	8%	1%	-
28	ZHENG Kristen	7%	34%	46%	12%	1%	-	-
29	GOTSABINA Elizabeth	9%	33%	37%	17%	3%	-	-
30	CHEN Jayden	4%	21%	39%	28%	8%	-
31	DUDKA Ivan	2%	15%	35%	33%	13%	1%
32	CHOU Andrea	10%	30%	34%	19%	6%	1%	-
33	JIANG Aidan	4%	21%	37%	28%	9%	1%	-
34	PAREKH Riana	16%	36%	32%	14%	3%	-	-
35	KHAHAM Samuel	34%	42%	19%	4%	-	-
36	SHEYDIN Barry	-	9%	30%	36%	19%	5%	-
37	DATSON Mia	23%	43%	26%	7%	1%	-
38	VESPERMAN Ryder	16%	38%	32%	12%	2%	-	-
39	GRANADOS Monserrat	24%	59%	16%	1%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.