The Portland ROC

Div II Men's Foil

Saturday, March 22, 2025 at 8:00 AM

Northwest Fencing Center - Tigard, OR, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	KETTELLE John	-	-	-	4%	29%	67%
2	TALASILA Arush	-	-	6%	28%	44%	21%
3	KIM Teo	-	2%	15%	39%	35%	10%
3	NEICE William	-	1%	10%	30%	40%	18%
5	HARROCH Faustin	-	6%	23%	39%	27%	6%
6	UZGIRIS Kovas	-	-	5%	26%	45%	24%
7	HARRIS Julien	-	7%	29%	42%	20%	2%
8	LIU William	-	-	2%	15%	41%	41%
9	TSAY Jordan R.	-	1%	8%	31%	42%	18%
10	PARK Jayden	1%	13%	38%	35%	11%	1%
11	SU Desmond	3%	20%	38%	29%	9%	1%
12	VAN Tyson	-	6%	24%	39%	25%	5%
13	MIETTINEN Pyry	-	6%	23%	39%	26%	6%
14	HOLCOMB Alexander	11%	36%	36%	15%	3%	-
15	TOYOFUKU Ethan	-	3%	20%	41%	31%	4%
16	FECAROTTA Ryan	3%	20%	38%	29%	9%	1%
17	MCKEE Calvin	-	-	5%	25%	44%	25%
18	CRAIG Whitman	-	2%	25%	43%	25%	5%
19	PAINTER Zachary	29%	43%	22%	5%	1%	-
20	SU Preston	2%	18%	42%	29%	8%	1%
21	SERBAN Joseph T.	-	3%	26%	43%	24%	4%
22	CHOI Elliot	17%	45%	30%	8%	1%	-
23	CHRISTIAN Jonathan	-	2%	11%	31%	39%	17%
24	SUNDSTROM Wren	15%	39%	33%	12%	2%	-
25	DEISHER Wesley	40%	52%	7%	-	-	-
26	HOLCOMB Michael	32%	47%	18%	3%	-	-
27	WILCOX Stephen	34%	43%	19%	4%	-	-
28	NICHOLSON John	47%	47%	5%	-	-	-
29	THOMAS Noah	31%	48%	19%	3%	-	-
30	SCHUMANN Benjamin	45%	42%	12%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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