Fairfax Challenge SYC/RJCC

Y-12 Men's Saber

Sunday, March 23, 2025 at 8:00 AM

Fredericksburg Convention Center - Fredericksburg, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 AGARWAAL Yohan - - - 1% 9% 36% 54%
2 KAUL Ishaan - - - 4% 18% 42% 36%
3 MIAO Heqi - - - 4% 19% 43% 35%
3 HENDERSON Louis - - - - 4% 31% 65%
5 LIANG Morgan - - 1% 5% 22% 42% 30%
6 LIM JUWANA Maximilian - 2% 12% 33% 39% 14%
7 LEVY Daniel - 2% 10% 30% 39% 19%
8 BROOKS Theo - - 2% 12% 32% 38% 16%
9 CHANG Ethan - - 1% 7% 24% 41% 27%
10 JAVIER Xavier - 1% 5% 18% 34% 32% 11%
11 LIU Jayden 1% 6% 21% 36% 29% 8%
12 LI Lucas - 5% 22% 38% 28% 7% -
13 YI Andrew - - 4% 20% 43% 33%
14 CHAN Ewan - 2% 13% 31% 35% 17% 3%
15 BRISENO Ethan - - 3% 18% 38% 32% 9%
16 HOWARTH Hayes - 1% 8% 23% 36% 26% 6%
17 CAO HAOTIAN - - 1% 10% 33% 45% 11%
18 TAKEBE Ren - 2% 10% 29% 37% 20% 3%
19 SLAVNOV Anton - - 1% 4% 19% 41% 35%
20 LAU Kyrus - - 3% 12% 30% 37% 18%
21 LI Kent 4% 21% 36% 28% 10% 2% -
22 PARK Sean - 2% 10% 28% 36% 21% 4%
23 D'AMELJ Edoardo - - 2% 10% 30% 40% 19%
24 LI Michael - 2% 10% 27% 35% 22% 5%
25 BRADY Jack - 2% 9% 25% 36% 23% 5%
26 WANG Mason - 3% 14% 32% 33% 15% 2%
27 PARK Layne - 5% 18% 33% 30% 13% 2%
28 BROOKS Isaac 2% 12% 28% 32% 19% 5% 1%
29 ARTETA-CHEVALIER Ulysse - 1% 6% 22% 37% 27% 7%
30 CHOU Franklin 1% 8% 25% 37% 24% 6%
31 LAN Jasper 1% 8% 27% 36% 22% 6% 1%
32 KUANG Cyrus 2% 13% 29% 32% 18% 5% -
33 LEE Aiden - 4% 20% 38% 28% 8% 1%
34 SABINO Bennett 1% 7% 24% 36% 24% 7% 1%
35 WANG Harrison 4% 19% 33% 29% 13% 3% -
36 SCHWARTZMAN Jakub - 2% 10% 27% 36% 22% 4%
37 BERGAN Chase 7% 28% 38% 22% 5% -
38 ZHANG Caleb 3% 14% 31% 32% 16% 4% -
39 MAUREL Louis 1% 10% 28% 35% 20% 5% -
39 BURCH III Andrew J. - 3% 16% 34% 31% 13% 2%
41 ALLEN Parker - 3% 15% 33% 33% 14% 2%
42 ATA Kevin - 4% 19% 35% 29% 11% 1%
43 RINALDI Benigno - 1% 6% 23% 39% 26% 5%
44 YU Ronen 9% 28% 35% 21% 6% 1% -
45 HUANG Joseph 7% 28% 38% 22% 6% - -
46 URQUILLA Devin 13% 36% 35% 14% 2% -
47 SUN Leonard 1% 7% 25% 37% 24% 6% -
48 KASSAYE Abi 1% 11% 30% 36% 19% 3% -
49 KONG Ethan 2% 13% 36% 33% 13% 2% -
50 CARD Ewan 16% 37% 31% 13% 3% - -
51 KELLY Collin 1% 10% 27% 34% 21% 6% 1%
52 GUO Aiden 16% 37% 32% 13% 2% - -
53 ALLEN Paxton 11% 32% 34% 18% 5% 1% -
54 FAZELINIA Erfaan 6% 24% 37% 25% 8% 1%
55 BONGIORNO Redding 8% 29% 36% 21% 5% 1%
56 CHOI Clayton 19% 40% 30% 10% 1% -
57 STOKELY Samuel 19% 39% 30% 11% 2% -
58 ROSTHOLDER Ethan 13% 33% 33% 16% 4% 1% -
59 BADMUS David 5% 21% 34% 27% 11% 2% -
60 MCCABE Donovan 2% 13% 31% 33% 17% 4% -
61 SHEK-WEI Wesley 25% 43% 25% 7% 1% - -
62 SHARMA Ayaan 3% 18% 34% 30% 13% 3% -
63 AUSLANDER Rocco 5% 23% 38% 27% 8% 1% -
64 LI Derek 2% 12% 32% 36% 16% 2%
65 GOLDSTEIN Malcolm 7% 30% 38% 20% 5% 1% -
66 GU Viljo Weihan 26% 46% 22% 4% - - -
67 HAMM Bennett 1% 9% 25% 33% 23% 8% 1%
68 GUO Lining 29% 44% 22% 5% - - -
69 HUANG KIMBALL 17% 38% 31% 12% 2% - -
70 XU Evan 17% 39% 31% 11% 2% - -
71 LEE Augustine 10% 30% 35% 20% 5% 1% -
71 CHEN Remsen 32% 46% 19% 3% - - -
73 XU Andrew 26% 46% 22% 5% - - -
74 ZHAO Evan 31% 42% 21% 5% - - -
75 SHERLOCK Jacob 40% 41% 15% 3% - - -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.