Daugherty Challenge RYC/RJCC

Y-14 Men's Foil

Saturday, March 29, 2025 at 2:30 PM

Crossroads College Preparatory School - St Louis, MO, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	HICKEY Connor	-	-	-	-	5%	29%	66%
2	HASTINGS Alex	1%	9%	29%	39%	20%	2%
3	MCMILLIAN Harrison	-	-	2%	12%	40%	46%
3	LINEBERRY CADEN	-	5%	18%	35%	31%	11%
5	FERGUSON Levi	-	1%	7%	30%	46%	17%
6	WENGER Liam	-	3%	14%	34%	36%	13%
7	MCCONKEY Tristan	-	1%	9%	29%	40%	20%
8	SHI Boris	-	-	2%	15%	42%	40%
9	WENGER Rowan	-	3%	16%	34%	33%	13%	1%
10	LI Andy	-	2%	10%	29%	38%	20%	2%
11	YOUNG Jack	1%	9%	32%	39%	17%	2%
12	BALES Gabriel	2%	12%	31%	35%	17%	3%
13	WOJTALEWICZ Aiden	-	5%	23%	39%	27%	5%
14	BLACK John	13%	38%	34%	13%	2%	-
15	MORALES Tycho	4%	18%	34%	30%	12%	2%
16	POLYZOIS Alkis	30%	43%	22%	5%	1%	-
17	MADDES Gage	1%	8%	27%	39%	22%	4%
18	DEPP Edward	1%	6%	23%	38%	26%	6%
19	CHAN William	2%	19%	41%	29%	7%	1%
20	FOSTERVOLD Castiel	-	3%	16%	35%	33%	12%	1%
21	XU Rambert	4%	21%	38%	28%	9%	1%
22	TOMOV Evan	4%	21%	38%	28%	9%	1%	-
23	UNTEREKER Billy	22%	41%	27%	9%	1%	-	-
24	CRONK Trevor	17%	37%	31%	12%	2%	-
25	FEEHAN Conor	3%	18%	37%	31%	10%	1%
26	TAGORE Ayansh	8%	36%	38%	15%	2%	-
27	FLOOD Moe	11%	35%	35%	15%	3%	-
28	HILDEBRANDT Gerhard	16%	39%	32%	11%	2%	-	-
29	HALLETTMANES Ezra	31%	43%	21%	4%	-	-
30	FERRARO Vito	1%	12%	33%	35%	15%	2%
31	RILEY Parker	58%	35%	7%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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