Wang Memorial ROC/RYC/RJCC

Div II Men's Foil

Saturday, March 29, 2025 at 8:00 AM

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Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	CLARK Benjamin	-	4%	27%	43%	22%	3%
2	CHEZ Nolan	-	1%	14%	42%	39%	4%
3	BARRETT Austin	-	5%	25%	43%	23%	4%
3	JOHNSON Chance	-	-	3%	21%	47%	28%
5	STANTON Timothy	-	-	-	6%	34%	59%
6	MCKEE Calvin	-	-	3%	23%	47%	27%
7	WOODALL Ian L.	-	-	2%	9%	28%	40%	20%
8	FLYNT Hayden	-	5%	35%	43%	16%	1%
9	TEH Tang-Ngu	-	-	2%	12%	32%	38%	16%
10	NUCKLES Caden	-	4%	19%	37%	30%	9%	1%
11	RAJ Jay	-	-	-	2%	13%	40%	45%
12	POPOKH Luca	-	5%	19%	35%	29%	11%	1%
13	GIDDENS James	-	-	3%	16%	37%	35%	9%
14	CHENG Mason	-	7%	45%	37%	10%	1%
15	CHEW Aaron	1%	10%	31%	40%	17%	2%
16	WILSON Bryan	3%	17%	34%	31%	13%	3%	-
17	GODFREY Christopher	29%	43%	22%	5%	-	-
18	NIXON Scott	-	-	-	5%	32%	63%
19	FRANCIS Maximillian	24%	41%	26%	8%	1%	-	-
20	LIN Evan	18%	66%	15%	1%	-	-
21	DAI Calvin	30%	44%	21%	5%	-	-	-
22	DIEP Daniel	2%	16%	36%	32%	12%	2%	-
23	PRECCIOZZI Aldo F.	-	1%	17%	45%	31%	6%
24	FRANCIS Sebastian	10%	60%	26%	4%	-	-
25	KONG Raymond	10%	35%	39%	15%	2%	-
26	DE BARROS CONTI Thibaut	-	3%	16%	34%	32%	12%	1%
27	MCCOY Camden	18%	41%	30%	9%	1%	-	-
28	SENISCH Isaac	-	3%	15%	33%	32%	14%	2%
29	SCHMIDT Robert	74%	25%	1%	-	-	-
30	PETERS Cody	3%	20%	40%	30%	7%	-
31	JACOBS Jack	15%	39%	32%	12%	2%	-	-
32	COWARD Daniel	81%	18%	1%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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