The Cherry Blossom - D1A/VET ROC

Veteran Men's Foil

Sunday, March 30, 2025 at 11:30 AM

University of Maryland, Reckord Armory - College Park, MD, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	JAN Stephen	-	-	1%	11%	41%	47%
2	PAI Dong-Ying	-	-	1%	9%	43%	47%
3	WOOD Alexander W.	-	2%	17%	46%	34%
3	FLANAGAN James	-	4%	24%	47%	25%
5	DIAZ Julio P.	-	-	-	8%	46%	46%
6	KURPASKA Jonathan A.	-	9%	35%	39%	15%	1%
7	GROSS Stephen R.	-	-	1%	13%	52%	33%
8	ABRAHAMS Paul	-	2%	15%	37%	35%	11%
9	RADU Andrew	-	-	14%	39%	36%	11%
10	MASTRONARDI Joseph M.	5%	27%	45%	21%	2%	-
11	RIFFATERRE Jason	3%	23%	45%	25%	4%
12	VIVEROS Oscar A.	12%	34%	35%	15%	2%	-
13	BEREKNYEI Thomas	2%	12%	32%	36%	16%	2%
14	RUSANOV Oleg	7%	49%	35%	9%	1%	-
15	ZEIN ELABEDIN Tamer	-	2%	15%	38%	35%	10%
16	LEE Hans	23%	62%	14%	1%	-	-
17	COTLAR Andrew D.	-	1%	18%	41%	32%	8%
18	BHATT Jay	18%	47%	29%	6%	-
19	WAY Kashi M.	-	-	10%	34%	40%	15%
20	FADL Omar	-	4%	26%	43%	23%	3%
21	WOOD BEn	2%	14%	35%	36%	12%	1%
22	GUERRERO Gonzalo	1%	10%	35%	43%	10%	1%
23	MAHNKEN Thomas G.	6%	27%	39%	23%	5%	-
24	CHAO Pierre	20%	47%	27%	5%	-	-
25	MYERS Kenneth	66%	32%	2%	-	-	-
26	WU Geoffrey	45%	42%	11%	1%	-
27	BUCHANAN Jonah	6%	24%	36%	25%	8%	1%
28	CHANDLEE Thomas	37%	45%	16%	2%	-	-
29	CHANDLEE Richard (Rick)	78%	21%	2%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.